Week 1 2020 · September 14, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Broncos, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Broncos 16–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:07 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 16 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Titans about even · −9 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 9, Broncos win 1.
- 1 TEN 38 DEN 7
- 2 TEN 33 DEN 10
- 3 TEN 29 DEN 10
- 4 TEN 26 DEN 10
- 5 TEN 27 DEN 14
- 6 TEN 34 DEN 24
- 7 TEN 33 DEN 26
- 8 TEN 16 DEN 12
- 9 TEN 20 DEN 19
- 10 TEN 22 DEN 27
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 91% of them, Broncos 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 49.5% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 22.2% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 6.1% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- S. Gostkowski, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 44 yds blocked · 80% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 42 yds missed · 84% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Titans 5 for 37 yards, Broncos 5 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:22 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 13:58 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q1 9:04 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 10 yards | 0% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | Disqualification on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 13 yards | +3% DEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:10 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 6 yards | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:37 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +21% TEN +5.2 pts |
| Q3 3:35 | Face Mask on the Broncos (Josey Jewell), 15 yards | +5% TEN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:32 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 4 yards · pre-snap | +6% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Michael Ojemudia), 16 yards | +12% TEN +1.2 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:27 | S. Gostkowski missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +10% DEN | TEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 7:23 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 3:25 | The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +8% TEN | DEN: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 0:12 | S. Gostkowski had a 44-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him | +9% DEN | TEN: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 12:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +21% TEN | TEN: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 13:53 | The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +14% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Michael Ojemudia), 16 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +12% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:24 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +8% DEN | TEN: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Von Miller (DEN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 97% · Broncos 3%
- Final margin
- Titans by 2
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 91% · Broncos 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · 
Titans · 
Broncos
More from Week 1 2020
- Texans at Chiefs KC 34–20 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bears at Lions CHI 27–23 · replay 24% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings GB 43–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 27–20 · replay 34% for the winner
- Raiders at Panthers LV 34–30 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots NE 21–11 · replay 83% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington WAS 27–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 38–25 · replay 33% for the winner
- Chargers at Bengals LAC 16–13 · replay 91% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–20 · replay 23% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 34–23 · replay 40% for the winner
- Cowboys at Rams LA 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Steelers at Giants PIT 26–16 · replay 29% for the winner