luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 14, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Broncos, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Broncos 16–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 11.4 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:53 left): the Titans converted 4th & 1, worth 21 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 16
Denver Broncos 14

September 14, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +10 Titans about even · −10 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Broncos win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 30 DEN 0
  2. 2 TEN 24 DEN 0
  3. 3 TEN 33 DEN 13
  4. 4 TEN 24 DEN 7
  5. 5 TEN 24 DEN 10
  6. 6 TEN 21 DEN 10
  7. 7 TEN 16 DEN 7
  8. 8 TEN 19 DEN 14
  9. 9 TEN 19 DEN 17
  10. 10 TEN 13 DEN 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 90% of them, Broncos 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+49.7%
Titans by 9–1621.4%
Titans by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
Broncos by 1–86.6%
Broncos by 9–162.5%
Broncos by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 6.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 44 yds blocked · 80% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 42 yds missed · 83% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:27 S. Gostkowski missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +10% DEN TEN: Punt
2 Q2 7:23 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 3:25 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% TEN DEN: End of half
4 Q2 0:12 S. Gostkowski had a 44-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him +9% DEN TEN: Missed field goal
5 Q3 12:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 13:53 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +21% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Michael Ojemudia), 16 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +12% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:20 S. Gostkowski made 25-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 83% · Broncos 17%

Final margin
Titans by 2
Luck in points
4.8 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 90% · Broncos 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Titans · Broncos

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