luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Ravens, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 38–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.6 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 6
Baltimore Ravens 38

September 13, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7

Luck index +5 Ravens about even · −5 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 20 BAL 14
  2. 2 CLE 45 BAL 48
  3. 3 CLE 13 BAL 20
  4. 4 CLE 10 BAL 20
  5. 5 CLE 10 BAL 23
  6. 6 CLE 24 BAL 40
  7. 7 CLE 16 BAL 35
  8. 8 CLE 23 BAL 45
  9. 9 CLE 7 BAL 33
  10. 10 CLE 14 BAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 5% of them, Ravens 95%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.2%
Browns by 9–161.1%
Browns by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Ravens by 1–810.3%
Ravens by 9–1622.9%
Ravens by 17+61.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 32. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 20.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • A. Seibert, 41 yds missed · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:27 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% BAL CLE: Turnover
2 Q1 6:17 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:24 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% CLE BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:11 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 927 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +6% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q2 10:48 False Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:30 Face Mask on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 994 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:46 A. Seibert missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +7% BAL CLE: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Hubbard (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mack Wilson (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 32
Luck in points
11.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 20.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 5% · Ravens 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Browns · Ravens

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