luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Ravens, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 38–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites.

Final

Cleveland Browns 6
Baltimore Ravens 38

September 13, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7

Luck index +6 Ravens about even · −6 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 16 BAL 10
  2. 2 CLE 32 BAL 34
  3. 3 CLE 8 BAL 14
  4. 4 CLE 21 BAL 30
  5. 5 CLE 16 BAL 27
  6. 6 CLE 14 BAL 30
  7. 7 CLE 21 BAL 41
  8. 8 CLE 16 BAL 39
  9. 9 CLE 3 BAL 31
  10. 10 CLE 0 BAL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 6% of them, Ravens 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.1%
Browns by 9–161.2%
Browns by 1–84.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Ravens by 1–811.0%
Ravens by 9–1621.3%
Ravens by 17+61.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 32, without the luck Ravens by 20.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Seibert, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 8 for 80 yards, Ravens 7 for 66 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:11 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 15 yards +6% CLE +1.7 pts
Q2 10:48 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 10:30 Face Mask on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 15 yards +5% BAL +1.1 pts
Q2 9:11 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Face Mask on the Browns (Sheldrick Redwine), 15 yards +1% BAL +1.4 pts
Q3 12:40 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +1% CLE +1.2 pts
Q3 12:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 16 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 11:47 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 5 yards +1% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 11:21 Face Mask on the Browns, 15 yards 0% BAL +1.4 pts
Q3 6:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 3:12 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 10:11 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q4 9:27 Illegal Crackback on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% CLE +2.1 pts
Q4 7:58 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q4 4:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% CLE +1.3 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:21 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% BAL CLE: Turnover
2 Q1 2:24 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CLE BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:11 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 927 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +6% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 10:48 False Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:30 Face Mask on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 994 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:50 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +3% BAL CLE: Missed field goal
8 Q2 0:46 A. Seibert missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +7% BAL CLE: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Hubbard (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mack Wilson (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 32
Luck in points
11.6 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 20.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 6% · Ravens 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Browns · Ravens

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