luckadjusted

AFC North

Cleveland Browns: how lucky, season by season

Since 2019, the Browns have won 51 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 49.0. Luck added 2.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+2.8 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−2.6).

2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 0.4 (+0.6 luck). 2026 game by game

Luck in wins, by season

Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.

SeasonRecordReplay winsLuckOne-scoreCalls, pts per gamePlayoffs
2026 1–1 0.4 +0.6 1–0 +1.25 –
2025 5–12 4.4 +0.6 3–6 −0.30 –
2024 3–14 2.0 +1.0 3–4 +0.31 –
2023 11–6 8.2 +2.8 6–2 −0.10 0–1
2022 7–10 9.6 −2.6 2–6 −1.37 –
2021 8–9 9.5 −1.5 5–6 −0.26 –
2020 11–5 8.8 +2.2 7–2 −1.13 1–1
2019 6–10 6.6 −0.6 2–4 −0.56 –

Luckiest wins

Wins the Browns take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2024 Week 8 vs Ravens W 29–24 1% +99
2025 Week 18 @ Bengals W 20–18 2% +98
2024 Week 2 @ Jaguars W 18–13 9% +91
2023 Week 7 @ Colts W 39–38 11% +89
2023 Week 10 @ Ravens W 33–31 14% +86

Unluckiest losses

Losses the Browns would win most often in a replay.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2022 Week 2 vs Jets L 30–31 98% −98
2025 Week 14 vs Titans L 29–31 66% −66
2022 Week 5 vs Chargers L 28–30 66% −66
2021 Week 17 @ Steelers L 14–26 62% −62
2023 Week 8 @ Seahawks L 20–24 57% −57