2019 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2019: game by game

The Browns went 6–10 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Titans	L 13–43	13%	−13
Week 2	@ Jets	W 23–3	98%	+2
Week 3	vs Rams	L 13–20	19%	−19
Week 4	@ Ravens	W 40–25	25%	+75
Week 5	@ 49ers	L 3–31	3%	−3
Week 6	vs Seahawks	L 28–32	40%	−40
Week 8	@ Patriots	L 13–27	29%	−29
Week 9	@ Broncos	L 19–24	32%	−32
Week 10	vs Bills	W 19–16	80%	+20
Week 11	vs Steelers	W 21–7	53%	+47
Week 12	vs Dolphins	W 41–24	94%	+6
Week 13	@ Steelers	L 13–20	22%	−22
Week 14	vs Bengals	W 27–19	61%	+39
Week 15	@ Cardinals	L 24–38	15%	−15
Week 16	vs Ravens	L 15–31	12%	−12
Week 17	@ Bengals	L 23–33	55%	−55

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −13 vs TEN

Wk 2 +2 @ NYJ

Wk 3 −19 vs LA

Wk 4 +75 @ BAL

Wk 5 −3 @ SF

Wk 6 −40 vs SEA

Wk 8 −29 @ NE

Wk 9 −32 @ DEN

Wk 10 +20 vs BUF

Wk 11 +47 vs PIT

Wk 12 +6 vs MIA

Wk 13 −22 @ PIT

Wk 14 +39 vs CIN

Wk 15 −15 @ ARI

Wk 16 −12 vs BAL

Wk 17 −55 @ CIN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.53	+12.5
Judgment calls	−0.02	−6.0
Rest	−0.03	−1.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.04	+0.8
Fumble bounces	−0.11	−8.3
Injuries	−0.18	−6.7