Week 11 2019 · November 14, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Browns, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Steelers 21–7, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Browns lucky · −47 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Browns win 5.
- 1 PIT 34 CLE 10
- 2 PIT 41 CLE 23
- 3 PIT 27 CLE 17
- 4 PIT 28 CLE 22
- 5 PIT 14 CLE 12
- 6 PIT 37 CLE 39
- 7 PIT 27 CLE 33
- 8 PIT 16 CLE 27
- 9 PIT 16 CLE 31
- 10 PIT 6 CLE 28
Your call
Did the Browns earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 47% of them, Browns 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 12.4% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 14.0% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 19.2% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Browns by 17+ | 14.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 44 yds missed · 78% expected
- A. Seibert, 45 yds missed · 77% expected
- A. Seibert, 50 yds missed · 64% expected
Penalties: Steelers 6 for 41 yards, Browns 8 for 121 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:21 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +3% CLE +1.5 pts |
| Q1 9:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 33 yards | +7% PIT +3.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +3% CLE +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 6 yards | +3% CLE +2.3 pts |
| Q2 9:14 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Chad Thomas), 15 yards | +2% PIT +1.9 pts |
| Q2 8:28 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:39 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +1% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:23 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Browns, 0 yards | 0% PIT 0.0 pts |
| Q3 8:11 | Disqualification on the Browns (Damarious Randall), 15 yards | +2% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:22 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Illegal Contact on the Browns (Juston Burris), 5 yards | +1% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 38 yards | +5% PIT +2.7 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:47 | Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.6 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:11 | The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 329 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +7% PIT | PIT: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:52 | C. Boswell missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +7% CLE | PIT: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 5:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 294 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +5% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:52 | The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% CLE | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 1:42 | The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% CLE | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:35 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +7% CLE | PIT: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 12:11 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% PIT | CLE: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
- Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts
- Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 0% · Browns 100%
- Final margin
- Browns by 14
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 18.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 47% · Browns 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · 
Steelers · 
Browns
More from Week 11 2019
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 37–20 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Lions DAL 35–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Broncos at Vikings MIN 27–23 · replay 65% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens BAL 41–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 33–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 34–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jets at Washington NYJ 34–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 36–26 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Raiders OAK 17–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Eagles NE 17–10 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 17–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs vs Chargers KC 24–17 · replay 36% for the winner