luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Ravens, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Texans 41–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:07 left): J. Tucker missed a 43-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 7
Baltimore Ravens 41

November 17, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +5 Ravens about even · −5 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 25 BAL 27
  2. 2 HOU 37 BAL 42
  3. 3 HOU 21 BAL 29
  4. 4 HOU 28 BAL 39
  5. 5 HOU 29 BAL 42
  6. 6 HOU 30 BAL 47
  7. 7 HOU 17 BAL 37
  8. 8 HOU 20 BAL 45
  9. 9 HOU 14 BAL 45
  10. 10 HOU 10 BAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 5% of them, Ravens 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.2%
Texans by 9–160.9%
Texans by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.9%
Ravens by 1–89.1%
Ravens by 9–1618.9%
Ravens by 17+67.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 34, without the luck Ravens by 26.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 43 yds missed · 83% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 60 yards, Ravens 8 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:04 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens (Nick Boyle), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q1 3:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (D.J. Reader), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 1:35 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Brandon Williams), 15 yards +7% HOU +1.9 pts
Q2 14:25 False Start on the Ravens (Mark Ingram), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 14:06 Face Mask on the Texans (Zach Cunningham), 15 yards +4% BAL +1.8 pts
Q2 1:37 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 13:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 30 yards +1% BAL +1.7 pts
Q3 3:28 False Start on the Ravens (Nick Boyle), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.4 pts
Q4 11:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Gus Edwards), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% HOU +2.7 pts
Q4 8:27 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 15 yards 0% HOU +2.4 pts
Q4 7:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 7:05 False Start on the Ravens (Miles Boykin), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Texans fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL HOU: Turnover
2 Q1 11:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
3 Q1 10:07 J. Tucker missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +10% HOU BAL: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 8:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 5:56 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% BAL HOU: Punt
6 Q1 2:05 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +9% HOU BAL: Touchdown
7 Q1 1:35 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Brandon Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 333 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q2 14:06 Face Mask on the Texans (Zach Cunningham), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 580 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Pierce (BAL NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chris Clark (HOU T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 34
Luck in points
7.2 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 26.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 5% · Ravens 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Texans · Ravens

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