2019 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2019: game by game
The Ravens went 14–2 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.4.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Dolphins | W 59–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Cardinals | W 23–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 3 | @ Chiefs | L 28–33 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 4 | vs Browns | L 25–40 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 5 | @ Steelers | W 26–23 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 6 | vs Bengals | W 23–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 7 | @ Seahawks | W 30–16 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 9 | vs Patriots | W 37–20 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 10 | @ Bengals | W 49–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | vs Texans | W 41–7 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 12 | @ Rams | W 45–6 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 13 | vs 49ers | W 20–17 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 14 | @ Bills | W 24–17 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | W 42–21 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | @ Browns | W 31–15 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 17 | vs Steelers | W 28–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Divisional round | vs Titans | L 12–28 | 42% | −42 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.52 | +12.4 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.47 | +12.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.21 | +16.8 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.4 |
| Injuries | −0.05 | +0.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.39 | −14.6 |