Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Steelers, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Steelers 26–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:41 left): Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 29 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final (OT)
 Baltimore Ravens | 26 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Ravens lucky · −25 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Steelers win 3.
- 1 BAL 48 PIT 20
- 2 BAL 21 PIT 0
- 3 BAL 25 PIT 9
- 4 BAL 39 PIT 26
- 5 BAL 16 PIT 7
- 6 BAL 25 PIT 20
- 7 BAL 18 PIT 16
- 8 BAL 6 PIT 9
- 9 BAL 13 PIT 20
- 10 BAL 17 PIT 34
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 75% of them, Steelers 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 27.4% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 24.0% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Ravens 11 for 92 yards, Steelers 11 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:41 | False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.3 pts |
| Q1 9:43 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 7:21 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +2% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:09 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PIT +2.4 pts |
| Q1 6:46 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Barron), 5 yards | +1% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:45 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Stephon Tuitt), 2 yards | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | False Start on the Steelers (James Washington), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:42 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:00 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Maurice Canady), 5 yards | +1% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:45 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens, 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Vince Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:50 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% PIT +3.2 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BAL +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:39 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Earl Thomas), 15 yards | +6% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:38 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Carr), 7 yards | +3% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:59 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Nick Boyle), 10 yards | +6% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:54 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +6% BAL +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +29% PIT +4.5 pts |
| Q4 7:46 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards | +5% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:24 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards | +5% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:30 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers, 15 yards | +7% BAL +1.3 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:50 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 5:51 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +14% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 1:01 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:41 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +29% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 3:27 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +9% BAL | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:14 | J. Tucker made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +12% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 7 | OT 7:37 | The Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% BAL | – |
| 8 | OT 5:31 | J. Tucker made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +18% BAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 59% · Steelers 41%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 75% · Steelers 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · 
Ravens · 
Steelers
More from Week 5 2019
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 30–29 · replay 44% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals ARI 26–23 · replay 77% for the winner
- Falcons at Texans HOU 53–32 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bills at Titans BUF 14–7 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bears vs Raiders OAK 24–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Panthers CAR 34–27 · replay 44% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Washington NE 33–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jets at Eagles PHI 31–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 31–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 20–13 · replay 35% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys GB 34–24 · replay 5% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs IND 19–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at 49ers SF 31–3 · replay 97% for the winner