luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Texans, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Falcons 53–32 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.3 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Texans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:54 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 32
Houston Texans 53

October 6, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −4

Luck index +37 Texans lucky · −37 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 42 HOU 20
  2. 2 ATL 17 HOU 7
  3. 3 ATL 37 HOU 31
  4. 4 ATL 30 HOU 28
  5. 5 ATL 24 HOU 26
  6. 6 ATL 24 HOU 30
  7. 7 ATL 24 HOU 33
  8. 8 ATL 33 HOU 47
  9. 9 ATL 19 HOU 38
  10. 10 ATL 14 HOU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 37% of them, Texans 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+6.2%
Falcons by 9–169.6%
Falcons by 1–818.5%
Level after regulation3.4%
Texans by 1–824.4%
Texans by 9–1618.5%
Texans by 17+19.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 21.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Bryant, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:18 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 267 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:13 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:20 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% HOU ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 6:24 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q2 0:29 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:19 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jamon Brown (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 21
Luck in points
0.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 21.1
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 37% · Texans 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Falcons · Texans

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