luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Texans, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Falcons 53–32, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:13 left): the Texans fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 11 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 32
Houston Texans 53

October 6, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −4

Luck index +36 Texans lucky · −36 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 34 HOU 14
  2. 2 ATL 31 HOU 20
  3. 3 ATL 38 HOU 31
  4. 4 ATL 27 HOU 24
  5. 5 ATL 35 HOU 37
  6. 6 ATL 21 HOU 26
  7. 7 ATL 14 HOU 24
  8. 8 ATL 23 HOU 36
  9. 9 ATL 34 HOU 52
  10. 10 ATL 17 HOU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 36% of them, Texans 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+5.4%
Falcons by 9–169.9%
Falcons by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Texans by 1–824.5%
Texans by 9–1618.7%
Texans by 17+19.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 21, without the luck Texans by 19.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Bryant, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 7 for 63 yards, Texans 9 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:18 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 15 yards +5% ATL +1.8 pts
Q2 9:22 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Phillip Gaines), 8 yards +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 5:08 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Ito Smith), 10 yards +5% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 0:49 Face Mask on the Texans, 15 yards +5% ATL +1.8 pts
Q3 11:13 Clipping on the Falcons, 15 yards +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q3 5:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Taiwan Jones), 10 yards +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 5:44 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Allen Bailey), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.0 pts
Q3 5:35 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Darren Fells), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.7 pts
Q3 2:29 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 2:06 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Kendall Sheffield), 3 yards +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 2:01 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 0:52 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 14:12 Illegal Shift on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 6:00 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 16 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards 0% HOU +1.1 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:18 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 267 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:13 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:20 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% HOU ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 0:49 Face Mask on the Texans, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:29 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:19 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jamon Brown (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 21
Luck in points
1.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 19.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 36% · Texans 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Falcons · Texans

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