Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jets at Eagles, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Jets 31–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.4 points to the Jets.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:15 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 New York Jets | 6 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Eagles about even · −1 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 0, Eagles win 10.
- 1 NYJ 10 PHI 14
- 2 NYJ 16 PHI 24
- 3 NYJ 10 PHI 22
- 4 NYJ 3 PHI 19
- 5 NYJ 3 PHI 21
- 6 NYJ 6 PHI 27
- 7 NYJ 3 PHI 27
- 8 NYJ 0 PHI 27
- 9 NYJ 6 PHI 37
- 10 NYJ 3 PHI 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 1% of them, Eagles 99%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 3.9% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 83.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Eagles by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 25.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- S. Ficken, 55 yds missed · 61% expected
- J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:47 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% PHI | NYJ: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:37 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:17 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:37 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:48 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +3% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 5:52 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +4% PHI | NYJ: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 5:15 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 220 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams | +16% PHI | NYJ: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 2:14 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% PHI | NYJ: End of half |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Sidney Jones (PHI CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Brandon Shell (NYJ T), out · 0.8 pts
- Kelechi Osemele (NYJ G), out · 0.5 pts
- Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Quincy Enunwa (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brent Qvale (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by l.falk · 0.3 pts
- Jordan Jenkins (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 0% · Eagles 100%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 25
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 25.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 1% · Eagles 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · 
Jets · 
Eagles
More from Week 5 2019
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals ARI 26–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- Falcons at Texans HOU 53–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 26–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Bills at Titans BUF 14–7 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bears vs Raiders OAK 24–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Panthers CAR 34–27 · replay 41% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–10 · replay 49% for the winner
- Patriots at Washington NE 33–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 31–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 20–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys GB 34–24 · replay 7% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs IND 19–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at 49ers SF 31–3 · replay 96% for the winner