2019 season · final
Philadelphia Eagles, 2019: game by game
The Eagles went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.1 wins. Luck cost them 0.1: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Washington | W 32–27 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 2 | @ Falcons | L 20–24 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 3 | vs Lions | L 24–27 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 4 | @ Packers | W 34–27 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 5 | vs Jets | W 31–6 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 6 | @ Vikings | L 20–38 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 7 | @ Cowboys | L 10–37 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | W 31–13 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | vs Bears | W 22–14 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 11 | vs Patriots | L 10–17 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 12 | vs Seahawks | L 9–17 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 13 | @ Dolphins | L 31–37 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 14 | vs Giants | W 23–17 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 15 | @ Washington | W 37–27 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 16 | vs Cowboys | W 17–9 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | W 34–17 | 60% | +40 |
| Wild Card | vs Seahawks | L 9–17 | 32% | −32 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.23 | +2.0 |
| Kicks | −0.02 | −5.5 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.05 | −9.1 |
| Rest | −0.05 | −2.2 |
| Injuries | −0.22 | −6.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.27 | +1.9 |