luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Eagles, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat Washington 32–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:15 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Washington Redskins 27
Philadelphia Eagles 32

September 8, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −10.5

Luck index +18 Eagles about even · −18 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 30 PHI 20
  2. 2 WAS 17 PHI 14
  3. 3 WAS 17 PHI 19
  4. 4 WAS 13 PHI 17
  5. 5 WAS 13 PHI 20
  6. 6 WAS 17 PHI 27
  7. 7 WAS 17 PHI 30
  8. 8 WAS 21 PHI 37
  9. 9 WAS 7 PHI 28
  10. 10 WAS 10 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 18% of them, Eagles 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.6%
Washington by 9–164.8%
Washington by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Eagles by 1–828.0%
Eagles by 9–1620.9%
Eagles by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Eagles by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 12 for 96 yards, Eagles 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (DeSean Jackson), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.4 pts
Q1 8:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on Washington (Tanner Vallejo), 10 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q1 5:50 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +1.5 pts
Q1 0:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 8:02 Offensive Holding on Washington (Trey Quinn), 7 yards +3% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 2:41 Offensive Holding on Washington (Cole Holcomb), 9 yards +4% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 0:04 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 7:14 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:12 Chop Block on Washington, 15 yards +2% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 13:05 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 5:55 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (JJ Arcega-Whiteside), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% WAS +1.7 pts
Q4 2:48 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +2.0 pts
Q4 2:03 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +1% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 0:17 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 0:06 Offside on Free Kick on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.5 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:32 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 5:50 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 4:40 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
4 Q1 3:29 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% PHI WAS: Field goal
5 Q3 7:54 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:15 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:15 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:28 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Reed (WAS TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 18% · Eagles 82%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
1.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington 18% · Eagles 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Washington · Eagles

More from Week 1 2019