Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bengals at Seahawks, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Bengals 21–20, but the Bengals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:10 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 20 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Seahawks very lucky · −62 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Seahawks win 4.
- 1 CIN 27 SEA 0
- 2 CIN 34 SEA 17
- 3 CIN 26 SEA 13
- 4 CIN 40 SEA 31
- 5 CIN 23 SEA 17
- 6 CIN 23 SEA 21
- 7 CIN 22 SEA 24
- 8 CIN 23 SEA 30
- 9 CIN 10 SEA 23
- 10 CIN 7 SEA 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Seahawks won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.09 | better by 0.01 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.17 | better by 0.23 |
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.12 | worse by 0.17 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.10 | better by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 62% of them, Seahawks 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 17.0% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.2% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 13.4% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Seahawks by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 4.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Bullock, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Bullock, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
- R. Bullock, 27 yds made · 97% expected
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:51 | Running Into the Kicker on the Seahawks (Cody Barton), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +10% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 9:33 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:59 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +11% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 10:18 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% CIN | CIN: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 0:48 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +14% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:10 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 7:03 | R. Bullock made 27-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him | +14% SEA | CIN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:14 | The Bengals fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% SEA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- David Moore (SEA WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 71% · Seahawks 29%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 1
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 4.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 62% · Seahawks 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · 
Bengals · 
Seahawks
More from Week 1 2019
- Packers at Bears GB 10–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 28–12 · replay 26% for the winner
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 40–26 · replay 91% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers LA 30–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Browns TEN 43–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 32–27 · replay 81% for the winner
- Colts at Chargers LAC 30–24 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals ARI 27–27 · replay 30% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 31–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 33–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Saints NO 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders OAK 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner