luckadjusted

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: how lucky, season by season

Since 2019, the Seahawks have won 72 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 62.3. Luck added 9.7 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+3.9 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−0.9).

2026: 2–0 so far, replay wins 1.5 (+0.5 luck). 2026 game by game

Luck in wins, by season

Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.

SeasonRecordReplay winsLuckOne-scoreCalls, pts per gamePlayoffs
2026 2–0 1.5 +0.5 1–0 −1.34 –
2025 14–3 12.4 +1.6 6–3 +0.91 3–0
2024 10–7 8.3 +1.7 6–2 +0.71 –
2023 9–8 7.4 +1.6 6–4 −0.91 –
2022 9–8 9.9 −0.9 4–6 −0.88 0–1
2021 7–10 7.3 −0.3 3–5 +1.06 –
2020 12–4 10.1 +1.9 8–3 +0.74 0–1
2019 11–5 7.1 +3.9 10–2 −0.19 1–1

Luckiest wins

Wins the Seahawks take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2021 Week 13 vs 49ers W 30–23 2% +98
2021 Week 4 @ 49ers W 28–21 8% +92
2023 Week 15 vs Eagles W 20–17 18% +82
2025 NFC Championship vs Rams W 31–27 22% +78
2025 Week 16 vs Rams W 38–37 29% +71

Unluckiest losses

Losses the Seahawks would win most often in a replay.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2020 Week 7 @ Cardinals L 34–37 86% −86
2024 Week 5 vs Giants L 20–29 81% −81
2023 Week 6 @ Bengals L 13–17 73% −73
2025 Week 5 vs Buccaneers L 35–38 66% −66
2021 Week 16 vs Bears L 24–25 63% −63