NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Seahawks have won 72 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 63.2. Luck added 8.8 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+3.8 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−1.2).
2026: 5–4 so far, replay wins 6.0 (−1.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5–4 | 6.0 | −1.0 | 2–3 | +0.04 | – |
| 2025 | 14–3 | 12.5 | +1.5 | 6–3 | +0.78 | 3–0 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 6–2 | +0.28 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 6–4 | −0.37 | – |
| 2022 | 9–8 | 10.2 | −1.2 | 4–6 | −0.62 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 7–10 | 7.4 | −0.4 | 3–5 | +0.06 | – |
| 2020 | 12–4 | 10.1 | +1.9 | 8–3 | −0.01 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 11–5 | 7.2 | +3.8 | 10–2 | −0.17 | 1–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +1.5 | −0.19 | +0.18 | +0.69 | +0.39 | +0.18 | +0.30 |
| 2024 | +1.6 | −0.43 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.14 | +0.32 | +0.05 |
| 2023 | +1.5 | +0.07 | +0.52 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.18 |
| 2022 | −1.2 | −0.44 | +0.37 | +0.43 | −0.31 | +0.73 | −0.44 |
| 2021 | −0.4 | +0.55 | +0.03 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.01 |
| 2020 | +1.9 | +0.09 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.06 |
| 2019 | +3.8 | +0.20 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.16 |
| Since 2019 | +8.8 | −0.15 | +1.08 | +1.07 | −0.02 | +1.30 | −0.07 |
Are the Seahawks lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Seahawks have won 72 regular-season games from play worth 63.2: +8.8 wins of luck, the 2nd-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Seahawks been so lucky?
Most of it came from injuries (+1.3 wins) and kicks (+1.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 43–25 since 2019, where the replays give them 37.6 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Seahawks’ luckiest season?
2019: 11–5 from play worth 7.2 wins, +3.8 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2022: 9–8 from play worth 10.2 (−1.2).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Seahawks’ luckiest wins
Wins the Seahawks take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 13 | vs 49ers | W 30–23 | 2% | +98 |
| 2021 Week 4 | @ 49ers | W 28–21 | 9% | +91 |
| 2025 Week 16 | vs Rams | W 38–37 | 17% | +83 |
| 2023 Week 15 | vs Eagles | W 20–17 | 31% | +69 |
| Super Bowl LX (2026) | vs Patriots | W 29–13 | 32% | +68 |
The Seahawks’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Seahawks would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 7 | @ Cardinals | L 34–37 | 87% | −87 |
| 2026 Week 6 | @ Broncos | L 14–17 | 77% | −77 |
| 2023 Week 6 | @ Bengals | L 13–17 | 77% | −77 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Commanders | L 31–33 | 74% | −74 |
| 2024 Week 5 | vs Giants | L 20–29 | 67% | −67 |
