luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 18, 2023

Eagles at Seahawks, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks stole one. They beat the Eagles 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 1.8 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:33 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 10, worth 50 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Seattle Seahawks 20

December 18, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Eagles −5

Luck index +82 Seahawks very lucky · −82 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Seahawks win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 27 SEA 0
  2. 2 PHI 33 SEA 13
  3. 3 PHI 24 SEA 10
  4. 4 PHI 23 SEA 10
  5. 5 PHI 30 SEA 20
  6. 6 PHI 20 SEA 13
  7. 7 PHI 24 SEA 20
  8. 8 PHI 12 SEA 10
  9. 9 PHI 21 SEA 24
  10. 10 PHI 6 SEA 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 82% of them, Seahawks 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+29.9%
Eagles by 9–1622.1%
Eagles by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation2.3%
Seahawks by 1–811.0%
Seahawks by 9–165.1%
Seahawks by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:13 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q3 7:22 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 5483 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 1:52 N. Fant dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 81 catchable balls before this +20% PHI SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:00 T. Lockett dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 172 catchable balls before this +30% PHI SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:56 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +18% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:33 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +50% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:13 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +40% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Geno Smith (SEA QB), out, replaced by d.lock · 3.5 pts
  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Phil Haynes (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (PHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 14% · Seahawks 86%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
7.0 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 82% · Seahawks 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Eagles · Seahawks

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