luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Giants at Saints, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Giants 24–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 4.0 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Saints were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:30 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 12, worth 9 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 6
New Orleans Saints 24

December 17, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −6

Luck index +2 Saints about even · −2 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Saints win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 0 NO 3
  2. 2 NYG 10 NO 16
  3. 3 NYG 7 NO 16
  4. 4 NYG 7 NO 19
  5. 5 NYG 10 NO 24
  6. 6 NYG 6 NO 23
  7. 7 NYG 3 NO 22
  8. 8 NYG 10 NO 31
  9. 9 NYG 7 NO 33
  10. 10 NYG 0 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 2% of them, Saints 98%. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.3%
Giants by 1–81.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Saints by 1–811.0%
Saints by 9–1619.3%
Saints by 17+67.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 18.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 56 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Gillan, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. Grupe, 50 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:06 R. Bullock made 56-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 20 of 33 from 45+ before +6% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q1 0:34 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:30 The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% NYG NYG: Punt
4 Q2 6:17 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% NO NYG: Punt
5 Q2 2:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1550 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q2 1:19 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
7 Q2 0:32 M. Breida dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 37 catchable balls before this +6% NO NYG: Field goal
8 Q3 11:22 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3112 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Saints 98%

Final margin
Saints by 18
Luck in points
0.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 18.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 2% · Saints 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Giants · Saints

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