luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Ravens at Jaguars, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Jaguars 23–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:06 left): B. McManus missed a 55-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 23
Jacksonville Jaguars 7

December 17, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 52 JAX 20
  2. 2 BAL 43 JAX 17
  3. 3 BAL 26 JAX 6
  4. 4 BAL 45 JAX 28
  5. 5 BAL 27 JAX 13
  6. 6 BAL 24 JAX 13
  7. 7 BAL 32 JAX 24
  8. 8 BAL 20 JAX 16
  9. 9 BAL 12 JAX 10
  10. 10 BAL 17 JAX 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 92% of them, Jaguars 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+50.5%
Ravens by 9–1622.2%
Ravens by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation1.7%
Jaguars by 1–85.9%
Jaguars by 9–161.8%
Jaguars by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 16, without the luck Jaguars by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. McManus, 50 yds missed · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 54 yards, Jaguars 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:30 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 12 yards +3% JAX +1.1 pts
Q2 6:23 False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 3:33 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 1:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens, 15 yards +2% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 0:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 8 yards 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 11:48 False Start on the Ravens, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 4:22 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.4 pts
Q3 2:51 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 2:30 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 11 yards +3% BAL +1.0 pts
Q4 12:02 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 6 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 3:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Daniel Thomas), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:30 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 4488 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +6% JAX BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 3:07 B. McManus missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 56 of 78 from 45+ before +10% BAL JAX: Missed field goal
3 Q2 13:06 B. McManus missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 56 of 79 from 45+ before +11% BAL JAX: Turnover
4 Q2 11:47 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +5% JAX BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:39 The Jaguars converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q2 5:53 The Jaguars fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL JAX: End of half
7 Q2 5:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:30 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3178 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +6% BAL JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 54% · Jaguars 46%

Final margin
Ravens by 16
Luck in points
16.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 92% · Jaguars 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Ravens · Jaguars

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