luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Buccaneers at Packers, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Packers 34–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Packers.

An off day for the Packers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:28 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34
Green Bay Packers 20

December 17, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +25 Buccaneers about even · −25 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 TB 34 GB 7
  2. 2 TB 28 GB 10
  3. 3 TB 26 GB 13
  4. 4 TB 28 GB 17
  5. 5 TB 31 GB 23
  6. 6 TB 19 GB 13
  7. 7 TB 27 GB 23
  8. 8 TB 23 GB 21
  9. 9 TB 14 GB 17
  10. 10 TB 14 GB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Packers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.

30 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.50 +0.04 better by 0.46
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.12 +0.11 worse by 0.01
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.12 +0.09 better by 0.02
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.50 +0.10 worse by 0.39

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 75% of them, Packers 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+23.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.3%
Buccaneers by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation4.1%
Packers by 1–814.9%
Packers by 9–166.5%
Packers by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 9.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Carlson, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • A. Carlson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:28 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% TB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:48 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB TB: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:26 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:42 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:17 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:52 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:57 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 95% · Packers 5%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 14
Luck in points
4.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 75% · Packers 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Buccaneers · Packers

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