luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Buccaneers at Packers, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Packers 34–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:28 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34
Green Bay Packers 20

December 17, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +26 Buccaneers lucky · −26 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 TB 33 GB 6
  2. 2 TB 23 GB 3
  3. 3 TB 22 GB 7
  4. 4 TB 21 GB 10
  5. 5 TB 25 GB 17
  6. 6 TB 26 GB 21
  7. 7 TB 16 GB 14
  8. 8 TB 17 GB 20
  9. 9 TB 28 GB 35
  10. 10 TB 13 GB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 74% of them, Packers 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+22.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.2%
Buccaneers by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation4.6%
Packers by 1–815.0%
Packers by 9–165.9%
Packers by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 14, without the luck Buccaneers by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Carlson, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • A. Carlson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 52 yards, Packers 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 7:09 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 5:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers, 32 yards +6% GB +1.9 pts
Q2 3:53 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 2:41 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.1 pts
Q2 0:31 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TB +1.6 pts
Q3 1:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Corey Ballentine), 11 yards +5% TB +2.4 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:52 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 9:48 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% GB TB: Field goal
3 Q1 2:28 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% TB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:48 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB TB: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:17 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:52 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:57 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 98% · Packers 2%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 14
Luck in points
2.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 74% · Packers 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Buccaneers · Packers

More from Week 15 2023