luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · September 17, 2026–September 21

Week 2 2026: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Packers beat the Jets 20–17 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 23–19 @ Buccaneers 26% 59% Coin flip
Saints 24–17 @ Ravens 26% 27% Lucky
Raiders 26–14 @ Chargers 32% 71% Deserved
Vikings 9–3 @ Bears 37% 53% Coin flip
Bengals 20–6 @ Texans 41% 64% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Saints W 24–17 @ Ravens 27% +73
2 Packers W 20–17 @ Jets 36% +64
3 Vikings W 9–3 @ Bears 53% +47
4 Chiefs W 33–30 vs Colts 53% +47
5 Browns W 23–19 @ Buccaneers 59% +41
6 Broncos W 20–13 vs Jaguars 60% +40
7 Eagles W 24–20 @ Titans 62% +38
8 Bengals W 20–6 @ Texans 64% +36
9 Raiders W 26–14 @ Chargers 71% +29
10 Seahawks W 31–7 @ Cardinals 80% +20
11 Cowboys W 37–20 vs Commanders 82% +18
12 Patriots W 20–3 vs Steelers 90% +10
13 Rams W 28–6 vs Giants 94% +6
14 Panthers W 34–3 @ Falcons 95% +5
15 Bills W 41–31 vs Lions 97% +3
16 49ers W 35–13 vs Dolphins 100% 0
17 Dolphins L 13–35 @ 49ers 0% 0
18 Lions L 31–41 @ Bills 3% −3
19 Falcons L 3–34 vs Panthers 5% −5
20 Giants L 6–28 @ Rams 6% −6
21 Steelers L 3–20 @ Patriots 10% −10
22 Commanders L 20–37 @ Cowboys 18% −18
23 Cardinals L 7–31 vs Seahawks 20% −20
24 Chargers L 14–26 vs Raiders 29% −29
25 Texans L 6–20 vs Bengals 36% −36
26 Titans L 20–24 vs Eagles 38% −38
27 Jaguars L 13–20 @ Broncos 40% −40
28 Buccaneers L 19–23 vs Browns 41% −41
29 Colts L 30–33 @ Chiefs 47% −47
30 Bears L 3–9 vs Vikings 47% −47
31 Jets L 17–20 vs Packers 64% −64
32 Ravens L 17–24 vs Saints 73% −73