luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 17, 2026

Lions at Bills, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Lions 41–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.5 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:49 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Detroit Lions 31
Buffalo Bills 41

September 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +6 Bills about even · −6 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 DET 45 BUF 41
  2. 2 DET 19 BUF 21
  3. 3 DET 19 BUF 24
  4. 4 DET 13 BUF 21
  5. 5 DET 10 BUF 21
  6. 6 DET 20 BUF 34
  7. 7 DET 28 BUF 45
  8. 8 DET 17 BUF 37
  9. 9 DET 9 BUF 34
  10. 10 DET 3 BUF 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 6% of them, Bills 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+0.3%
Lions by 9–161.6%
Lions by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bills by 1–814.6%
Bills by 9–1621.3%
Bills by 17+57.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:54 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% BUF DET: Punt
3 Q1 6:27 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:49 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Roger McCreary), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:40 The Lions converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:37 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedK. Shakir dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 270 catchable balls before this +4% DET BUF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 12% · Bills 88%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
0.5 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 6% · Bills 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Lions · Bills

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