Week 2 2026 · September 17, 2026
Lions at Bills, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Lions 41–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.
Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Bills about even · −3 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 0, Bills win 10.
- 1 DET 17 BUF 20
- 2 DET 21 BUF 27
- 3 DET 27 BUF 37
- 4 DET 17 BUF 30
- 5 DET 9 BUF 26
- 6 DET 21 BUF 41
- 7 DET 27 BUF 49
- 8 DET 13 BUF 38
- 9 DET 7 BUF 35
- 10 DET 6 BUF 41
Your call
Did the Bills earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Bills by 3.4, 60% to win. The Bills won by 10: the pick was right. The final margin was 6.6 points from ours; 57% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lions win | 39.5% |
| Bills win | 60.5% |
| Middle 50%: Lions by 6 to Bills by 13 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Lions by 18 to Bills by 24 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Lions by 22 to Bills by 28 | 95% |
| Exactly Bills by 3 | 8.6% |
| Exactly Lions by 3 | 7.6% |
| Exactly Bills by 7 | 5.6% |
| Exactly Lions by 7 | 4.2% |
| Exactly Bills by 14 | 4.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 3% of them, Bills 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 2.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Bills by 17+ | 71.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Bates, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Lions 10 for 58 yards, Bills 5 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 10 yards | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:54 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (D.J. Reed), 5 yards | +3% BUF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:58 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Roger McCreary), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BUF +5.5 pts |
| Q2 12:48 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 2 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BUF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 10:31 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BUF +2.7 pts |
| Q2 3:01 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 10 yards | +1% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Defensive Offside on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:06 | Tripping on the Bills (Landon Jackson), 13 yards | +2% DET +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | Face Mask on the Lions (Devin White), 2 yards | +1% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:24 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Davison Igbinosun), 5 yards | +2% DET +2.2 pts |
| Q4 12:24 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.3 pts |
| Q4 11:01 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 8 yards | +1% DET +2.5 pts |
| Q4 1:33 | Face Mask on the Lions (Tyler Lacy), 15 yards | 0% BUF +2.0 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:48 | The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:54 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% BUF | DET: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:27 | The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:49 | The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:25 | The Lions fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% DET | DET: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 12:58 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Roger McCreary), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 | +5% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:31 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 8:37 | K. Shakir dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 270 catchable balls before this | +3% DET | BUF: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 1% · Bills 99%
- Final margin
- Bills by 10
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bills by 14.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 3% · Bills 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Lions · 
Bills
More from Week 2 2026
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 20–6 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Saints at Ravens NO 24–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 26–14 · replay 71% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner