Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Raiders at Chargers, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Chargers 26–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Chargers.
An off day for the Chargers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:49 left): the Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 11 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 26 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Raiders lucky · −29 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Chargers win 3.
- 1 LV 37 LAC 10
- 2 LV 26 LAC 6
- 3 LV 29 LAC 13
- 4 LV 28 LAC 16
- 5 LV 25 LAC 17
- 6 LV 12 LAC 8
- 7 LV 19 LAC 17
- 8 LV 7 LAC 9
- 9 LV 13 LAC 20
- 10 LV 12 LAC 31
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Chargers by 3.8, 62% to win. The Raiders won by 12, a result we gave 38%. The final margin was 15.8 points from ours; 23% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Raiders win | 38.2% |
| Chargers win | 61.8% |
| Middle 50%: Raiders by 5 to Chargers by 13 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Raiders by 17 to Chargers by 25 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Raiders by 21 to Chargers by 29 | 95% |
| Exactly Chargers by 3 | 8.6% |
| Exactly Raiders by 3 | 7.5% |
| Exactly Chargers by 7 | 5.6% |
| Exactly Chargers by 14 | 4.2% |
| Exactly Chargers by 10 | 4.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chargers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.01 | better by 0.03 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.09 | better by 0.08 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.00 | +0.07 | worse by 0.07 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 71% of them, Chargers 29%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 23.6% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 14.9% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 58 yds missed · 71% expected
- M. Gay, 59 yds made · 62% expected
Penalties: Raiders 6 for 42 yards, Chargers 8 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:07 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +3% LAC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:25 | False Start on the Chargers, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.2 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | False Start on the Chargers, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% LV 0.0 pts |
| Q2 12:33 | False Start on the Raiders (Michael Mayer), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:09 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% LV +1.9 pts |
| Q2 4:13 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LAC +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:24 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:36 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 5 yards | +6% LV +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:41 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +5% LV +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Hezekiah Masses), 6 yards | +5% LAC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:52 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 6 yards · pre-snap | +18% LAC +2.5 pts |
| Q4 2:59 | Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 6 yards | +1% LV +2.3 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:44 | C. Dicker missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 42 of 49 from 45+ before | +9% LV | LAC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:04 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% LV | LV: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 3:26 | The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +11% LV | LAC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:01 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% LV | LAC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:08 | M. Gay made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 56 of 83 from 45+ before | +9% LV | LV: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:59 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:59 | A. Jeanty dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 73 catchable balls before this | +9% LAC | LV: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:49 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% LAC | LAC: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trey Pipkins (LAC G), out · 0.4 pts
- Elijah Molden (LAC DB), out · 0.3 pts
- Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.2 pts
- Darien Porter (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 97% · Chargers 3%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 12
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 12.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 71% · Chargers 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Raiders · 
Chargers
More from Week 2 2026
- Lions at Bills BUF 41–31 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 20–6 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Saints at Ravens NO 24–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner