Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Dolphins at 49ers, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Dolphins 35–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:32 left): R. Patterson missed a 51-yard field goal, worth 8 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 13 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 49ers about even · 0 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, 49ers win 10.
- 1 MIA 6 SF 9
- 2 MIA 9 SF 17
- 3 MIA 10 SF 21
- 4 MIA 10 SF 24
- 5 MIA 7 SF 24
- 6 MIA 24 SF 42
- 7 MIA 10 SF 31
- 8 MIA 10 SF 35
- 9 MIA 14 SF 44
- 10 MIA 0 SF 38
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the 49ers by 8.3, 74% to win. The 49ers won by 22: the pick was right. The final margin was 13.7 points from ours; 28% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Dolphins win | 25.6% |
| 49ers win | 74.4% |
| Middle 50%: Dolphins by 1 to 49ers by 17 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Dolphins by 13 to 49ers by 29 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Dolphins by 17 to 49ers by 34 | 95% |
| Exactly 49ers by 3 | 7.9% |
| Exactly Dolphins by 3 | 5.9% |
| Exactly 49ers by 7 | 5.7% |
| Exactly 49ers by 14 | 5.2% |
| Exactly 49ers by 10 | 4.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 0% of them, 49ers 100%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 14.4% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 82.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 51 yds missed · 71% expected
- R. Patterson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- R. Patterson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 50 yards, 49ers 7 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:13 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:07 | Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:48 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julius Brents), 5 yards | +1% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:34 | Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Keion White), 15 yards | +3% MIA +2.1 pts |
| Q2 3:16 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | +2% SF +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:35 | False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | 0% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Siran Neal), 10 yards | 0% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +2.1 pts |
| Q4 14:03 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Luke Farrell), 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:45 | Intentional Grounding on the 49ers (Brock Purdy), 18 yards | 0% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:12 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | 0% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +1.7 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:54 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +3% MIA | MIA: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:13 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:32 | R. Patterson missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before | +8% SF | MIA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:22 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:33 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +4% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 0:49 | The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 10:32 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% SF | MIA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 3:01 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Chop Robinson (MIA LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 0% · 49ers 100%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 22
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 22.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 0% · 49ers 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Dolphins · 
49ers
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