luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Bengals at Texans, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Texans 20–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.7 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 20
Houston Texans 6

September 20, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +56 Bengals lucky · −56 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 28 HOU 7
  2. 2 CIN 30 HOU 17
  3. 3 CIN 23 HOU 16
  4. 4 CIN 23 HOU 20
  5. 5 CIN 7 HOU 9
  6. 6 CIN 21 HOU 26
  7. 7 CIN 10 HOU 19
  8. 8 CIN 10 HOU 22
  9. 9 CIN 3 HOU 19
  10. 10 CIN 6 HOU 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 44% of them, Texans 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+7.8%
Bengals by 9–1613.7%
Bengals by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation3.1%
Texans by 1–826.9%
Texans by 9–1615.9%
Texans by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 58 yds missed · 65% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 45 yds made · 85% expected
  • E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 3:57 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 6:58 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% CIN HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 5:32 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:19 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% CIN HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q3 7:33 K. Fairbairn missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 63 of 86 from 45+ before +10% CIN HOU: Field goal
8 Q3 3:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jayden Higgins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Ingram (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 94% · Texans 6%

Final margin
Bengals by 14
Luck in points
3.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 44% · Texans 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Bengals · Texans

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