Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Bengals at Texans, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Texans 20–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:33 left): K. Fairbairn missed a 58-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 20 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Bengals lucky · −36 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Texans win 4.
- 1 CIN 28 HOU 3
- 2 CIN 30 HOU 13
- 3 CIN 16 HOU 6
- 4 CIN 26 HOU 19
- 5 CIN 19 HOU 15
- 6 CIN 19 HOU 17
- 7 CIN 13 HOU 16
- 8 CIN 9 HOU 16
- 9 CIN 9 HOU 23
- 10 CIN 3 HOU 24
Your call
Did the Bengals earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Texans by 3.1, 60% to win. The Bengals won by 14, a result we gave 40%. The final margin was 17.1 points from ours; 17% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bengals win | 40.4% |
| Texans win | 59.6% |
| Middle 50%: Bengals by 6 to Texans by 12 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Bengals by 18 to Texans by 24 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Bengals by 22 to Texans by 28 | 95% |
| Exactly Texans by 3 | 8.6% |
| Exactly Bengals by 3 | 7.7% |
| Exactly Texans by 7 | 5.5% |
| Exactly Bengals by 7 | 4.3% |
| Exactly Texans by 14 | 4.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 64% of them, Texans 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 17.6% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 26.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 10.6% |
| Texans by 17+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 94% expected
- E. McPherson, 51 yds made · 75% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 58 yds missed · 67% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 45 yds made · 85% expected
- E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Bengals 12 for 78 yards, Texans 9 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:55 | False Start on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:21 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% HOU +3.3 pts |
| Q1 5:04 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:07 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards | +3% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 11:56 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:14 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 5 yards | +4% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Cedric Johnson), 10 yards | +4% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:14 | Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Tacario Davis), 5 yards | +1% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 14:40 | Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Texans (Foster Moreau), 15 yards | +2% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 11:12 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:54 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:59 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Barrett Carter), 5 yards | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:44 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:39 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards | +1% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:55 | Intentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 13 yards | +1% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Texans (Jamal Hill), 5 yards | +1% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:17 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Jared Wayne), 10 yards | +1% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Myles Murphy), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:01 | Face Mask on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 13 yards | 0% HOU +1.6 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:21 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% HOU | HOU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 0:41 | The Texans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% HOU | HOU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 6:58 | The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +10% CIN | HOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:32 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:21 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:32 | E. McPherson made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 54 of 74 from 45+ before | +4% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:33 | K. Fairbairn missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 63 of 86 from 45+ before | +10% CIN | HOU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 0:44 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% CIN | HOU: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Jayden Higgins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Ed Ingram (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
- Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 96% · Texans 4%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 64% · Texans 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Bengals · 
Texans
More from Week 2 2026
- Lions at Bills BUF 41–31 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Saints at Ravens NO 24–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 26–14 · replay 71% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner
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