luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Vikings at Bears, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 9–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 6:26 left): C. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blocked, worth 25 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 9
Chicago Bears 3

September 20, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Our prediction before kickoff: Bears by 5.0

Luck index +47 Vikings lucky · −47 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Bears win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 20 CHI 0
  2. 2 MIN 20 CHI 7
  3. 3 MIN 17 CHI 8
  4. 4 MIN 23 CHI 19
  5. 5 MIN 24 CHI 21
  6. 6 MIN 5 CHI 7
  7. 7 MIN 6 CHI 10
  8. 8 MIN 3 CHI 12
  9. 9 MIN 9 CHI 21
  10. 10 MIN 21 CHI 42

Our prediction before kickoff

We had the Bears by 5.0, 65% to win. The Vikings won by 6, a result we gave 35%. The final margin was 11.0 points from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Vikings win34.7%
Bears win65.3%
Middle 50%: Vikings by 3 to Bears by 1450%
Middle 90%: Vikings by 17 to Bears by 2690%
Middle 95%: Vikings by 21 to Bears by 3195%
Exactly Bears by 38.5%
Exactly Vikings by 37.1%
Exactly Bears by 75.7%
Exactly Bears by 144.5%
Exactly Bears by 104.3%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 53% of them, Bears 47%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+8.4%
Vikings by 9–1615.7%
Vikings by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation7.6%
Bears by 1–822.4%
Bears by 9–1614.6%
Bears by 17+7.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Bears by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 70% expected
  • W. Reichard, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Santos, 23 yds blocked · 99% expected
  • W. Reichard, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 3 for 25 yards, Bears 8 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:00 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +2.1 pts
Q1 2:57 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 1:53 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Andrew Van Ginkel), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.7 pts
Q1 1:47 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:18 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 15 yards +7% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 3:02 Illegal Shift on the Bears (Sam Roush), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% MIN +2.0 pts
Q2 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:13 Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 13 yards +5% MIN +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.2 pts
Q4 14:43 False Start on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +0.8 pts
Q4 4:05 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:31 The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q3 10:19 The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% CHI CHI: Turnover
3 Q3 9:42 The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIN CHI: Punt
4 Q4 11:42 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% CHI CHI: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:26 The game turned hereC. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blockedKicks · 99% expected for him +25% MIN CHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 0:10 The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +11% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:06 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% MIN CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:01 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +22% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 27% · Bears 73%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
10.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 53% · Bears 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Vikings · Bears

More from Week 2 2026