luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Vikings at Bears, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 9–3, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.2 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:26 left): C. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blocked, worth 25 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 9
Chicago Bears 3

September 20, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Luck index +45 Vikings lucky · −45 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Bears win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 32 CHI 13
  2. 2 MIN 21 CHI 9
  3. 3 MIN 15 CHI 7
  4. 4 MIN 21 CHI 17
  5. 5 MIN 10 CHI 8
  6. 6 MIN 17 CHI 19
  7. 7 MIN 7 CHI 12
  8. 8 MIN 10 CHI 19
  9. 9 MIN 7 CHI 20
  10. 10 MIN 3 CHI 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 55% of them, Bears 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+8.2%
Vikings by 9–1616.2%
Vikings by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation6.9%
Bears by 1–822.6%
Bears by 9–1614.3%
Bears by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • W. Reichard, 49 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Santos, 23 yds blocked · 100% expected
  • W. Reichard, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:47 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% MIN CHI: Punt
2 Q2 2:00 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 293rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedFalse Start on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% MIN CHI: Punt
3 Q3 10:19 The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CHI CHI: Turnover
4 Q3 9:42 The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIN CHI: Punt
5 Q4 11:42 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +15% CHI CHI: Missed field goal
6 Q4 6:26 C. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blockedKicks · 100% expected for him +25% MIN CHI: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:10 The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:01 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +22% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 19% · Bears 81%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
11.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 55% · Bears 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Vikings · Bears

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