NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Vikings have won 68 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 60.9. Luck added 7.1 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+5.0 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−2.6).
2026: 6–1 so far, replay wins 4.0 (+2.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–1 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 4–1 | +1.19 | – |
| 2025 | 9–8 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 5–4 | +0.10 | – |
| 2024 | 14–3 | 12.1 | +1.9 | 9–1 | +0.99 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 7–10 | 9.6 | −2.6 | 6–8 | +0.89 | – |
| 2022 | 13–4 | 8.0 | +5.0 | 11–0 | +2.07 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 8–9 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 6–8 | −0.91 | – |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 6–4 | −0.60 | – |
| 2019 | 10–6 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 2–4 | −0.24 | 1–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +2.2 | +0.18 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.16 |
| 2024 | +1.9 | −0.38 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.50 | +0.09 | +0.11 |
| 2023 | −2.6 | −0.14 | −0.58 | +0.02 | +0.45 | −0.90 | −0.02 |
| 2022 | +5.0 | +0.35 | +0.39 | +0.14 | +1.04 | +0.31 | +0.34 |
| 2021 | +1.7 | +0.43 | −0.77 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.08 | −0.02 |
| 2020 | −1.7 | −0.26 | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −0.05 | +0.04 |
| 2019 | +0.6 | +0.56 | −0.39 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.32 | +0.05 |
| Since 2019 | +7.1 | +0.74 | −0.55 | +0.17 | +1.15 | −0.41 | +0.35 |
Are the Vikings lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Vikings have won 68 regular-season games from play worth 60.9: +7.1 wins of luck, the 6th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Vikings been so lucky?
Most of it came from judgment calls (+1.2 wins) and fumble bounces (+0.7 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 45–29 since 2019, where the replays give them 40.1 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Vikings’ luckiest season?
2022: 13–4 from play worth 8.0 wins, +5.0 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2023: 7–10 from play worth 9.6 (−2.6).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Vikings’ luckiest wins
Wins the Vikings take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 10 | @ Bills | W 33–30 | 14% | +86 |
| 2022 Week 12 | vs Patriots | W 33–26 | 21% | +79 |
| 2022 Week 6 | @ Dolphins | W 24–16 | 23% | +77 |
| 2021 Week 10 | @ Chargers | W 27–20 | 23% | +77 |
| 2019 Week 1 | vs Falcons | W 28–12 | 26% | +74 |
The Vikings’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Vikings would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 6 | vs Falcons | L 23–40 | 91% | −91 |
| 2019 Week 17 | vs Bears | L 19–21 | 91% | −91 |
| 2023 Week 1 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–20 | 82% | −82 |
| 2021 Week 13 | @ Lions | L 27–29 | 78% | −78 |
| 2023 Week 15 | @ Bengals | L 24–27 | 75% | −75 |
