luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Buccaneers at Vikings, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Vikings 20–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:23 left): the Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Minnesota Vikings 17

September 10, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +82 Buccaneers very lucky · −82 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 TB 27 MIN 14
  2. 2 TB 6 MIN 3
  3. 3 TB 7 MIN 10
  4. 4 TB 22 MIN 28
  5. 5 TB 16 MIN 24
  6. 6 TB 10 MIN 20
  7. 7 TB 17 MIN 30
  8. 8 TB 10 MIN 27
  9. 9 TB 10 MIN 31
  10. 10 TB 9 MIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 18% of them, Vikings 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+1.5%
Buccaneers by 9–165.3%
Buccaneers by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Vikings by 1–828.0%
Vikings by 9–1621.9%
Vikings by 17+31.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 3 for 19 yards, Vikings 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:27 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +1.0 pts
Q1 1:14 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (SirVocea Dennis), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Jalen Nailor), 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 9:49 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Patrick Jones II), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 6:47 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap +9% TB +2.4 pts
Q3 0:52 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 14:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers, 4 yards +9% MIN +2.0 pts
Q4 3:52 Face Mask on the Vikings (Dean Lowry), 15 yards +11% TB +1.8 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:21 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:23 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +12% TB MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:47 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +9% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:06 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers, 4 yardsJudgment calls +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:15 C. McLaughlin made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 28 of 41 from 45+ before +12% TB TB: End of game
8 Q4 3:52 Face Mask on the Vikings (Dean Lowry), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3162 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +11% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 59% · Vikings 41%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
1.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 18% · Vikings 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Buccaneers · Vikings

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