luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Buccaneers at Vikings, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers stole one. They beat the Vikings 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:04 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 22 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Minnesota Vikings 17

September 10, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +90 Buccaneers very lucky · −90 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 TB 22 MIN 17
  2. 2 TB 17 MIN 19
  3. 3 TB 21 MIN 26
  4. 4 TB 19 MIN 27
  5. 5 TB 16 MIN 27
  6. 6 TB 7 MIN 20
  7. 7 TB 12 MIN 28
  8. 8 TB 14 MIN 33
  9. 9 TB 13 MIN 36
  10. 10 TB 3 MIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.8%
Buccaneers by 9–162.1%
Buccaneers by 1–87.0%
Level after regulation1.2%
Vikings by 1–819.5%
Vikings by 9–1624.0%
Vikings by 17+45.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 0.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:23 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% TB MIN: Turnover
2 Q1 5:04 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% TB MIN: Punt
3 Q2 11:21 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:23 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% TB MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:06 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:15 C. McLaughlin made 57-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 28 of 41 from 45+ before +13% TB TB: End of game
8 Q4 3:52 Face Mask on the Vikings (Dean Lowry), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3162 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +11% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 54% · Vikings 46%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
2.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Buccaneers · Vikings

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