2023 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2023: game by game
The Vikings went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck cost them 2.6: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–8.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–20 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 2 | @ Eagles | L 28–34 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 3 | vs Chargers | L 24–28 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 4 | @ Panthers | W 21–13 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 5 | vs Chiefs | L 20–27 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 6 | @ Bears | W 19–13 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 7 | vs 49ers | W 22–17 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 8 | @ Packers | W 24–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 9 | @ Falcons | W 31–28 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 10 | vs Saints | W 27–19 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 11 | @ Broncos | L 20–21 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 12 | vs Bears | L 10–12 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 14 | @ Raiders | W 3–0 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 15 | @ Bengals | L 24–27 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 16 | vs Lions | L 24–30 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 17 | vs Packers | L 10–33 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 18 | @ Lions | L 20–30 | 14% | −14 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.45 | +12.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.02 | −0.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.14 | −10.6 |
| Kicks | −0.58 | −12.9 |
| Injuries | −0.90 | −31.1 |