luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Vikings at Panthers, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Panthers 21–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.6 points to the Panthers.

An off day for the Panthers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:42 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 70 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 21
Carolina Panthers 13

October 1, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4.5

Luck index +7 Vikings about even · −7 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 37 CAR 6
  2. 2 MIN 34 CAR 10
  3. 3 MIN 37 CAR 17
  4. 4 MIN 30 CAR 13
  5. 5 MIN 24 CAR 9
  6. 6 MIN 23 CAR 10
  7. 7 MIN 20 CAR 10
  8. 8 MIN 13 CAR 7
  9. 9 MIN 6 CAR 3
  10. 10 MIN 17 CAR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

30 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.09 better by 0.18
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.12 better by 0.23
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.04 worse by 0.15
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.07 worse by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 93% of them, Panthers 7%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+55.1%
Vikings by 9–1621.6%
Vikings by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Panthers by 1–84.6%
Panthers by 9–161.7%
Panthers by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 56 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers, 45 yardsJudgment calls +12% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 11:29 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1168 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +8% CAR CAR: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 10:42 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +70% CAR MIN: Punt
4 Q2 5:29 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% CAR MIN: Punt
5 Q2 3:26 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIN MIN: Turnover
6 Q2 0:46 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CAR MIN: Punt
7 Q3 4:09 The Panthers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +43% MIN CAR: Punt
8 Q4 2:02 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Woods (CAR FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jonathan Mingo (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 94% · Panthers 6%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
2.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 93% · Panthers 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Vikings · Panthers

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