luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Raiders at Chargers, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 24–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:47 left): the Raiders converted 4th & 10, worth 15 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 17
Los Angeles Chargers 24

October 1, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −7

Luck index +11 Chargers about even · −11 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 LV 28 LAC 20
  2. 2 LV 22 LAC 24
  3. 3 LV 12 LAC 17
  4. 4 LV 7 LAC 15
  5. 5 LV 6 LAC 16
  6. 6 LV 10 LAC 23
  7. 7 LV 10 LAC 26
  8. 8 LV 15 LAC 34
  9. 9 LV 7 LAC 29
  10. 10 LV 3 LAC 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 11% of them, Chargers 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.0%
Raiders by 9–162.4%
Raiders by 1–86.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Chargers by 1–817.5%
Chargers by 9–1622.8%
Chargers by 17+48.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (David Long), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1719 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:44 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:19 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% LAC LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 9:48 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LAC LV: Turnover
5 Q2 0:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2881 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% LAC LAC: End of half
6 Q4 3:34 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% LV LAC: End of game
7 Q4 2:47 The Raiders converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% LV LV: Turnover
8 Q4 2:39 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 7.7 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 44% · Chargers 56%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
10.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 11% · Chargers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Raiders · Chargers

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