luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · September 28, 2023–October 2

Week 4 2023: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 4 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Titans won 27–3 and take 45% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buccaneers 26–9 @ Saints 38% 87% Deserved
Texans 30–6 vs Steelers 41% 93% Deserved
Titans 27–3 vs Bengals 43% 45% Coin flip

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Titans W 27–3 vs Bengals 45% +55
2 Broncos W 31–28 @ Bears 48% +52
3 Rams W 29–23 @ Colts 62% +38
4 Chiefs W 23–20 @ Jets 79% +21
5 Buccaneers W 26–9 @ Saints 87% +13
6 Seahawks W 24–3 @ Giants 88% +12
7 Chargers W 24–17 vs Raiders 89% +11
8 Jaguars W 23–7 vs Falcons 89% +11
9 Eagles W 34–31 vs Commanders 91% +9
10 Texans W 30–6 vs Steelers 93% +7
11 Ravens W 28–3 @ Browns 94% +6
12 Vikings W 21–13 @ Panthers 94% +6
13 Lions W 34–20 @ Packers 94% +6
14 49ers W 35–16 vs Cardinals 97% +3
15 Cowboys W 38–3 vs Patriots 97% +3
16 Bills W 48–20 vs Dolphins 99% +1
17 Dolphins L 20–48 @ Bills 1% −1
18 Patriots L 3–38 @ Cowboys 3% −3
19 Cardinals L 16–35 @ 49ers 3% −3
20 Packers L 20–34 vs Lions 6% −6
21 Panthers L 13–21 vs Vikings 6% −6
22 Browns L 3–28 vs Ravens 6% −6
23 Steelers L 6–30 @ Texans 7% −7
24 Commanders L 31–34 @ Eagles 9% −9
25 Falcons L 7–23 @ Jaguars 11% −11
26 Raiders L 17–24 @ Chargers 11% −11
27 Giants L 3–24 vs Seahawks 12% −12
28 Saints L 9–26 vs Buccaneers 13% −13
29 Jets L 20–23 vs Chiefs 21% −21
30 Colts L 23–29 vs Rams 38% −38
31 Bears L 28–31 vs Broncos 52% −52
32 Bengals L 3–27 @ Titans 55% −55