2023 season · final
Philadelphia Eagles, 2023: game by game
The Eagles went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Patriots | W 25–20 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | W 34–28 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 3 | @ Buccaneers | W 25–11 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 4 | vs Commanders | W 34–31 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 5 | @ Rams | W 23–14 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 6 | @ Jets | L 14–20 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 7 | vs Dolphins | W 31–17 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 8 | @ Commanders | W 38–31 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 9 | vs Cowboys | W 28–23 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 11 | @ Chiefs | W 21–17 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 12 | vs Bills | W 37–34 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 13 | vs 49ers | L 19–42 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 14 | @ Cowboys | L 13–33 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 15 | @ Seahawks | L 17–20 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 16 | vs Giants | W 33–25 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 17 | vs Cardinals | L 31–35 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 18 | @ Giants | L 10–27 | 44% | −44 |
| Wild Card | @ Buccaneers | L 9–32 | 35% | −35 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +1.67 | +41.1 |
| Kicks | +0.72 | +7.0 |
| Injuries | +0.04 | +0.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.02 | +3.5 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −1.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.14 | −3.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.31 | −12.7 |