Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023
Dolphins at Eagles, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Dolphins 31–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:08 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 34 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 17 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Eagles lucky · −53 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 5, Eagles win 5.
- 1 MIA 45 PHI 24
- 2 MIA 40 PHI 27
- 3 MIA 19 PHI 10
- 4 MIA 21 PHI 16
- 5 MIA 32 PHI 30
- 6 MIA 24 PHI 27
- 7 MIA 21 PHI 26
- 8 MIA 19 PHI 27
- 9 MIA 10 PHI 22
- 10 MIA 3 PHI 24
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 53% of them, Eagles 47%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 9.6% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 15.5% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Level after regulation | 6.6% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 8.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Sanders, 40 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 10 for 70 yards, Eagles 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:03 | Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q1 7:54 | Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:10 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +13% PHI +4.1 pts |
| Q2 12:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.5 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eli Apple), 5 yards | +3% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:14 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.1 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards | +2% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:28 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q4 14:18 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:07 | Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:09 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:32 | The Eagles fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% MIA | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:10 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:20 | T. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 200 catchable balls before this | +8% PHI | MIA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 4:13 | The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% PHI | MIA: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 4:08 | The Eagles were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams | +34% MIA | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 12:14 | The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 11:33 | The Dolphins were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +11% PHI | MIA: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.3 pts
- Terron Armstead (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Connor Williams (MIA C), out · 0.6 pts
- Connor Williams (MIA G), out · 0.4 pts
- Keion Crossen (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 1% · Eagles 99%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 12.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 53% · Eagles 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · 
Dolphins · 
Eagles
More from Week 7 2023
- Jaguars at Saints JAX 31–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 29–25 · replay 18% for the winner
- Browns at Colts CLE 39–38 · replay 10% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Bears CHI 30–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants NYG 14–7 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 20–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Rams PIT 24–17 · replay 21% for the winner
- Packers at Broncos DEN 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 22–17 · replay 63% for the winner