luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · October 19, 2023–October 23

Week 7 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 13 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Patriots beat the Bills 29–25 in a game they win 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Patriots 29–25 vs Bills 29% 18% Lucky
Vikings 22–17 vs 49ers 30% 63% Deserved
Steelers 24–17 @ Rams 40% 21% Lucky
Falcons 16–13 @ Buccaneers 41% 90% Deserved
Giants 14–7 vs Commanders 41% 48% Coin flip
Jaguars 31–24 @ Saints 43% 87% Deserved
Bears 30–12 vs Raiders 43% 87% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 39–38 @ Colts 10% +90
2 Patriots W 29–25 vs Bills 18% +82
3 Steelers W 24–17 @ Rams 21% +79
4 Eagles W 31–17 vs Dolphins 47% +53
5 Giants W 14–7 vs Commanders 48% +52
6 Vikings W 22–17 vs 49ers 63% +37
7 Broncos W 19–17 vs Packers 78% +22
8 Jaguars W 31–24 @ Saints 87% +13
9 Bears W 30–12 vs Raiders 87% +13
10 Seahawks W 20–10 vs Cardinals 88% +12
11 Chiefs W 31–17 vs Chargers 90% +10
12 Falcons W 16–13 @ Buccaneers 90% +10
13 Ravens W 38–6 vs Lions 98% +2
14 Lions L 6–38 @ Ravens 2% −2
15 Buccaneers L 13–16 vs Falcons 10% −10
16 Chargers L 17–31 @ Chiefs 10% −10
17 Cardinals L 10–20 @ Seahawks 12% −12
18 Raiders L 12–30 @ Bears 13% −13
19 Saints L 24–31 vs Jaguars 13% −13
20 Packers L 17–19 @ Broncos 22% −22
21 49ers L 17–22 @ Vikings 37% −37
22 Commanders L 7–14 @ Giants 52% −52
23 Dolphins L 17–31 @ Eagles 53% −53
24 Rams L 17–24 vs Steelers 79% −79
25 Bills L 25–29 @ Patriots 82% −82
26 Colts L 38–39 vs Browns 90% −90