2023 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2023: game by game
The Lions went 12–5 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.6.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Chiefs | W 21–20 | 21% | +79 |
| Week 2 | vs Seahawks | L 31–37 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 3 | vs Falcons | W 20–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | @ Packers | W 34–20 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 5 | vs Panthers | W 42–24 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 6 | @ Buccaneers | W 20–6 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 7 | @ Ravens | L 6–38 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 8 | vs Raiders | W 26–14 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 10 | @ Chargers | W 41–38 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 11 | vs Bears | W 31–26 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 12 | vs Packers | L 22–29 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 13 | @ Saints | W 33–28 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 14 | @ Bears | L 13–28 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 15 | vs Broncos | W 42–17 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 16 | @ Vikings | W 30–24 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 17 | @ Cowboys | L 19–20 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 18 | vs Vikings | W 30–20 | 86% | +14 |
| Wild Card | vs Rams | W 24–23 | 36% | +64 |
| Divisional round | vs Buccaneers | W 31–23 | 73% | +27 |
| NFC Championship | @ 49ers | L 31–34 | 55% | −55 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.45 | −2.3 |
| Kicks | +0.19 | −1.4 |
| Injuries | +0.18 | +6.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.17 | +2.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.42 | −12.9 |