NFC North
Detroit Lions: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Lions have won 57 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 59.7. Luck cost them 2.7 wins. Their luckiest season was 2024 (+2.2 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−3.1).
2026: 6–2 so far, replay wins 5.2 (+0.8 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 4–1 | +0.75 | – |
| 2025 | 9–8 | 10.5 | −1.5 | 3–5 | −1.80 | – |
| 2024 | 15–2 | 12.8 | +2.2 | 7–2 | +1.58 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 12–5 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 5–3 | +0.02 | 2–1 |
| 2022 | 9–8 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 4–5 | −0.06 | – |
| 2021 | 3–13–1 | 4.7 | −1.2 | 2–6–1 | +0.93 | – |
| 2020 | 5–11 | 6.6 | −1.6 | 4–4 | −0.83 | – |
| 2019 | 3–12–1 | 6.6 | −3.1 | 3–8–1 | −0.21 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −1.5 | −0.65 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.90 | −0.08 | −0.10 |
| 2024 | +2.2 | −0.19 | +1.16 | +0.64 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.56 |
| 2023 | +1.1 | −0.42 | +0.19 | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.17 |
| 2022 | +1.4 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.03 |
| 2021 | −1.2 | −0.45 | −1.15 | 0.00 | +0.47 | −0.30 | −0.22 |
| 2020 | −1.6 | −0.28 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.07 |
| 2019 | −3.1 | −0.09 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.54 | −0.23 |
| Since 2019 | −2.7 | −1.87 | +0.97 | +1.14 | −0.18 | −0.46 | +0.15 |
Are the Lions lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Lions have won 57 regular-season games from play worth 59.7: −2.7 wins of luck, the 14th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Lions had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from fumble bounces (−1.9 wins) and injuries (−0.5 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 28–33–2 since 2019, where the replays give them 31.9 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Lions’ luckiest season?
2024: 15–2 from play worth 12.8 wins, +2.2 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2019: 3–12–1 from play worth 6.6 (−3.1).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Lions’ luckiest wins
Wins the Lions take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 15 | vs Cardinals | W 30–12 | 18% | +82 |
| 2023 Week 1 | @ Chiefs | W 21–20 | 21% | +79 |
| 2021 Week 13 | vs Vikings | W 29–27 | 22% | +78 |
| 2019 Week 2 | vs Chargers | W 13–10 | 25% | +75 |
| 2020 Week 3 | @ Cardinals | W 26–23 | 32% | +68 |
The Lions’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Lions would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 12 | @ Washington | L 16–19 | 89% | −89 |
| 2019 Week 10 | @ Bears | L 13–20 | 86% | −86 |
| 2024 Week 2 | vs Buccaneers | L 16–20 | 84% | −84 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Eagles | L 9–16 | 81% | −81 |
| 2020 Week 1 | vs Bears | L 23–27 | 76% | −76 |
