2020 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2020: game by game
The Lions went 5–11 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.6: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bears | L 23–27 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 2 | @ Packers | L 21–42 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 3 | @ Cardinals | W 26–23 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 4 | vs Saints | L 29–35 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 6 | @ Jaguars | W 34–16 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 7 | @ Falcons | W 23–22 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 8 | vs Colts | L 21–41 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 9 | @ Vikings | L 20–34 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 10 | vs Washington | W 30–27 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 11 | @ Panthers | L 0–20 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 12 | vs Texans | L 25–41 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 13 | @ Bears | W 34–30 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 14 | vs Packers | L 24–31 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 15 | @ Titans | L 25–46 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 16 | vs Buccaneers | L 7–47 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 17 | vs Vikings | L 35–37 | 55% | −55 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.51 | +3.1 |
| Injuries | +0.10 | +1.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | −5.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.28 | −16.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.41 | −3.4 |