luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2020: game by game

The Lions went 5–11 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.6: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bears L 23–27 74% −74
Week 2 @ Packers L 21–42 25% −25
Week 3 @ Cardinals W 26–23 30% +70
Week 4 vs Saints L 29–35 36% −36
Week 6 @ Jaguars W 34–16 82% +18
Week 7 @ Falcons W 23–22 79% +21
Week 8 vs Colts L 21–41 19% −19
Week 9 @ Vikings L 20–34 30% −30
Week 10 vs Washington W 30–27 84% +16
Week 11 @ Panthers L 0–20 13% −13
Week 12 vs Texans L 25–41 12% −12
Week 13 @ Bears W 34–30 88% +12
Week 14 vs Packers L 24–31 14% −14
Week 15 @ Titans L 25–46 16% −16
Week 16 vs Buccaneers L 7–47 1% −1
Week 17 vs Vikings L 35–37 54% −54

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Lions’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+2.6+0.16
Injuries+2.6+0.16
Rest+0.4+0.02
3rd & 4th downs−6.2−0.39
Judgment calls−9.8−0.61
Fumble bounces−12.6−0.79