Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Panthers, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Lions 20–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 6.1 points to the Lions.
An off day for the Lions: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:02 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 0 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Panthers about even · −13 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 1, Panthers win 9.
- 1 DET 30 CAR 24
- 2 DET 19 CAR 21
- 3 DET 16 CAR 20
- 4 DET 13 CAR 20
- 5 DET 6 CAR 16
- 6 DET 28 CAR 41
- 7 DET 7 CAR 23
- 8 DET 15 CAR 34
- 9 DET 6 CAR 31
- 10 DET 10 CAR 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Lions
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Lions: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | −0.28 | +0.10 | worse by 0.38 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.17 | better by 0.01 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.11 | better by 0.05 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.28 | +0.18 | better by 0.46 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 13% of them, Panthers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 8.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 23.7% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 42.3% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Panthers by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 18.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 56 yds made · 60% expected
- M. Prater, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
- J. Slye, 37 yds made · 90% expected
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:19 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:54 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% DET | DET: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:22 | The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% DET | DET: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 1:02 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% CAR | DET: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:47 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +10% DET | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:20 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:30 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% DET | DET: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 9:18 | Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +11% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Teddy Bridgewater (CAR QB), out, replaced by p.walker · 6.0 pts
- Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.9 pts
- Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- John Miller (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts
- Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tahir Whitehead (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Danny Amendola (DET WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Da'Shawn Hand (DET DL), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 1% · Panthers 99%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 20
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 18.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 13% · Panthers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · 
Lions · 
Panthers
More from Week 11 2020
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 24–9 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Washington WAS 20–9 · replay 88% for the winner
- Patriots at Texans HOU 27–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Eagles at Browns CLE 22–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Steelers at Jaguars PIT 27–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Titans at Ravens TEN 30–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Dolphins at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jets at Chargers LAC 34–28 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Packers at Colts IND 34–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 35–31 · replay 43% for the winner
- Rams at Buccaneers LA 27–24 · replay 64% for the winner