luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Browns, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Eagles 22–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.0 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:47 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 24 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Cleveland Browns 22

November 22, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +29 Browns lucky · −29 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 41 CLE 24
  2. 2 PHI 27 CLE 20
  3. 3 PHI 30 CLE 27
  4. 4 PHI 25 CLE 27
  5. 5 PHI 30 CLE 34
  6. 6 PHI 24 CLE 31
  7. 7 PHI 16 CLE 27
  8. 8 PHI 30 CLE 45
  9. 9 PHI 15 CLE 34
  10. 10 PHI 21 CLE 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 29% of them, Browns 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+4.8%
Eagles by 9–168.2%
Eagles by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation3.3%
Browns by 1–821.2%
Browns by 9–1620.8%
Browns by 17+26.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Parkey, 47 yds blocked · 74% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. Parkey, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:08 The Eagles fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE PHI: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 6:39 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 1:11 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +9% PHI CLE: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 13:47 Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +24% CLE CLE: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 12:07 The Browns fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI CLE: Field goal
6 Q3 5:28 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% PHI CLE: Punt
7 Q4 15:00 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
8 Q4 13:04 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +13% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Myles Garrett (CLE DE), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Herbig (PHI C/G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 2% · Browns 98%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
7.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 29% · Browns 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Eagles · Browns

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