2026 NFL season · after Week 3

Where NFL luck comes from

The Raiders are the luckiest team of 2026 so far, +1.4 wins beyond what their play was worth, most of all from kicks (+0.26). The Texans are the unluckiest (−1.2), hit hardest by kicks (−0.52).

Luck in wins is what a team won beyond what its play was worth, replaying every game with the same day’s form. The columns split the luck of individual plays by kind, each play weighted by the moment it happened; they add up to roughly the same number. Regular season only. Methodology

Every team’s luck by kind, 2026 so far

#	Team	Record	Luck in wins	Fumble bounces	Kicks	Drops	Judgment calls	Injuries	3rd & 4th downs
1	Raiders	3–0	+1.4	+0.13	+0.26	−0.11	+0.10	−0.02	+0.09
2	Browns	2–1	+1.3	−0.15	−0.06	+0.06	+0.21	+0.06	+0.20
3	Vikings	3–0	+1.3	+0.14	+0.20	+0.15	+0.58	+0.05	+0.12
4	Broncos	2–1	+1.2	−0.10	−0.13	+0.40	+0.34	+0.07	−0.13
5	Giants	2–1	+1.0	+0.12	+0.05	+0.06	+0.06	−0.04	0.00
6	Eagles	2–1	+0.9	−0.20	−0.04	−0.01	−0.07	+0.08	+0.19
7	Lions	2–1	+0.6	−0.13	+0.27	−0.05	−0.06	−0.01	−0.09
8	Chiefs	3–0	+0.6	+0.20	−0.13	−0.03	−0.10	−0.06	0.00
9	Bills	3–0	+0.5	+0.37	+0.09	+0.07	−0.14	+0.03	0.00
10	Steelers	2–1	+0.4	+0.21	+0.04	−0.32	+0.08	−0.03	−0.08
11	Cardinals	1–2	+0.2	+0.10	−0.04	0.00	−0.03	+0.12	+0.01
12	49ers	3–0	+0.2	−0.12	+0.10	−0.05	+0.03	−0.05	+0.08
13	Colts	1–2	+0.2	−0.08	+0.48	0.00	+0.20	+0.06	+0.03
14	Bengals	2–1	+0.1	−0.20	+0.17	+0.08	−0.16	+0.05	+0.16
15	Packers	1–2	0.0	+0.10	−0.03	−0.09	−0.20	−0.09	−0.25
16	Commanders	1–2	0.0	+0.17	+0.02	−0.09	−0.01	−0.08	−0.01
17	Falcons	1–2	−0.1	+0.06	+0.10	+0.20	−0.12	+0.10	−0.01
18	Patriots	1–2	−0.2	−0.12	−0.02	+0.05	−0.01	0.00	+0.11
19	Bears	2–1	−0.3	+0.03	−0.26	−0.08	−0.01	−0.02	+0.06
20	Seahawks	2–1	−0.3	−0.01	−0.05	−0.04	+0.02	−0.07	−0.13
21	Jaguars	2–1	−0.3	+0.11	−0.08	−0.12	+0.01	+0.01	+0.12
22	Ravens	2–1	−0.4	0.00	+0.30	−0.01	−0.04	0.00	−0.18
23	Saints	1–2	−0.4	+0.07	−0.24	+0.04	+0.07	−0.02	+0.14
24	Jets	1–2	−0.5	−0.01	−0.22	+0.12	−0.13	+0.05	+0.19
25	Dolphins	0–3	−0.6	−0.07	−0.17	+0.03	−0.09	+0.04	+0.04
26	Buccaneers	0–3	−0.7	−0.13	−0.03	−0.03	−0.26	0.00	−0.14
27	Titans	0–3	−0.8	−0.14	+0.30	+0.10	−0.01	+0.06	−0.12
28	Cowboys	1–2	−0.9	−0.11	−0.39	−0.05	−0.05	−0.03	+0.01
29	Rams	1–2	−1.0	−0.03	+0.21	−0.26	−0.38	−0.02	−0.05
30	Panthers	1–2	−1.0	+0.07	+0.04	−0.14	−0.11	−0.18	−0.14
31	Chargers	0–3	−1.1	+0.07	−0.23	+0.07	+0.22	+0.01	−0.15
32	Texans	0–3	−1.2	−0.34	−0.52	+0.03	+0.05	−0.07	−0.06

All in wins. Each kind is net of the opponent’s: a missed kick by the other team counts in your favor. Luck in wins (wins minus replay wins) also includes the sequencing of plays that no single kind captures.

The kinds of luck

Fumble bounces

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it about half the time, and no team is better at getting it. The purest luck in football. Leader in 2026: the Bills (+0.37 wins).

Counted as luck: 100%. Repeats between odd and even weeks: r = 0.02. Predicts later results: r = 0.05. Turnover luck by team

Kicks

Field goals and extra points against what that kicker, at that distance, in that weather, usually makes; and the other team’s misses. Leader in 2026: the Colts (+0.48 wins).

Counted as luck: 100%. Repeats between odd and even weeks: r = 0.15. Predicts later results: r = 0.00. Kicking luck by team

Drops

Catchable balls dropped, against each receiver’s own drop rate (FTN charting, from 2022). A sure-handed receiver’s drop on third down is the costly kind. Leader in 2026: the Broncos (+0.40 wins).

Counted as luck: 100%. Repeats between odd and even weeks: r = 0.05. Predicts later results: r = 0.02. Dropped passes by team

Judgment calls

Holding, pass interference, roughing: flags a crew could have thrown or not, weighted by how often the flagged player draws them. Leader in 2026: the Vikings (+0.58 wins).

Counted as luck: 50%. Repeats between odd and even weeks: r = 0.09. Predicts later results: r = −0.17. Referee calls by team

Injuries

Key players missing before kickoff, valued by position, quality and playing time. Luck, but it lasts: a player is out for weeks. Leader in 2026: the Cardinals (+0.12 wins).

Counted as luck: 75%. Repeats between odd and even weeks: r = 0.62. Predicts later results: r = −0.01. Injury luck by team

Third and fourth downs

Conversions against what that offense usually manages from that distance. Mostly skill, so only a quarter of it counts as luck. Leader in 2026: the Browns (+0.20 wins).

Counted as luck: 25%. Repeats between odd and even weeks: r = −0.03. Predicts later results: r = 0.24. How conversions are scored

Interceptions

Not counted. How many interception-worthy throws a quarterback makes carries over, and a defense’s knack for holding on runs with team quality. The fumble half of turnover luck is the lucky half. Turnovers by team

Close games

One-score records swing on all of the above, and barely carry over from one season to the next. One-score records, 2026 · Regression candidates

Questions

How do you measure luck in the NFL?

Two ways, which agree. Every game is replayed 4,000 times with the way both teams actually played, and luck is the wins a team got beyond how often it wins those replays. And every chance event (a fumble bounce, a kick, a drop, a judgment call, a missing player) is scored against what was expected, weighted by the moment it came.

Which NFL team is the luckiest in 2026?

The Raiders: +1.4 wins beyond what their play was worth so far. The unluckiest are the Texans, −1.2.

Which kind of luck matters most?

This season so far, kicks have moved team records the most, then judgment calls. Over whole seasons, luck accounts for about 38% of the spread in NFL records.

Luck rankings by season: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

Luckiest teams since 2019 · Luckiest plays · Luckiest wins · How much of football is luck?