2026 season · in progress
Buffalo Bills, 2026: game by game
The Bills went 6–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–1.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Texans | W 36–31 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 2 | vs Lions | W 41–31 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 3 | vs Chargers | W 24–16 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | L 26–29 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 5 | @ Rams | W 37–34 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 6 | @ Raiders | W 33–30 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 8 | vs Ravens | W 36–10 | 98% | +2 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Bills win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 9 · Nov 9 | at Vikings |  Bills by 3.7 | 61% |
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | at Jets | Bills by 7.3 | 71% |
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | vs Dolphins | Bills by 13.4 | 85% |
| Week 12 · Nov 26 | vs Chiefs | Bills by 4.0 | 62% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Patriots | Bills by 0.2 | 51% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | at Packers | Bills by 0.3 | 51% |
| Week 15 · Dec 19 | vs Bears | Bills by 4.3 | 63% |
| Week 16 · Dec 25 | at Broncos | Bills by 1.6 | 55% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at Dolphins | Bills by 8.8 | 75% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | vs Jets | Bills by 12.0 | 82% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.80 | +18.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.23 | −0.1 |
| Rest | +0.05 | +1.8 |
| Drops | −0.08 | −8.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.10 | −1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.26 | −3.8 |