2026 season · in progress
Buffalo Bills, 2026: game by game
The Bills went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bills’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +6.0 | +2.98 |
| Fumble bounces | +4.7 | +2.36 |
| Injuries | +0.7 | +0.35 |
| Kicks | −1.4 | −0.70 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −1.7 | −0.86 |
| Drops | −3.7 | −1.84 |