luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · October 22, 2026–October 26

Week 7 2026: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 7 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Bears won 30–24 and take 40% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 27–21 @ Texans 23% 94% Deserved
Dolphins 28–25 @ Jets 40% 79% Deserved
Buccaneers 43–13 @ Panthers 41% 86% Deserved
Falcons 29–20 vs 49ers 43% 66% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 30–24 vs Patriots 40% +60
2 Broncos W 30–16 @ Cardinals 55% +45
3 Steelers W 16–10 @ Saints 61% +39
4 Falcons W 29–20 vs 49ers 66% +34
5 Vikings W 16–10 vs Colts 69% +31
6 Dolphins W 28–25 @ Jets 79% +21
7 Browns W 27–24 @ Titans 84% +16
8 Seahawks W 20–3 vs Chiefs 86% +14
9 Buccaneers W 43–13 @ Panthers 86% +14
10 Lions W 20–17 vs Packers 89% +11
11 Bengals W 35–13 @ Ravens 89% +11
12 Cowboys W 38–21 @ Eagles 93% +7
13 Giants W 27–21 @ Texans 94% +6
14 Rams W 35–21 @ Raiders 96% +4
15 Raiders L 21–35 vs Rams 4% −4
16 Texans L 21–27 vs Giants 6% −6
17 Eagles L 21–38 vs Cowboys 7% −7
18 Ravens L 13–35 vs Bengals 11% −11
19 Packers L 17–20 @ Lions 11% −11
20 Panthers L 13–43 vs Buccaneers 14% −14
21 Chiefs L 3–20 @ Seahawks 14% −14
22 Titans L 24–27 vs Browns 16% −16
23 Jets L 25–28 vs Dolphins 21% −21
24 Colts L 10–16 @ Vikings 31% −31
25 49ers L 20–29 @ Falcons 34% −34
26 Saints L 10–16 vs Steelers 39% −39
27 Cardinals L 16–30 vs Broncos 45% −45
28 Patriots L 24–30 @ Bears 60% −60