2026 season · in progress

Tennessee Titans, 2026: game by game

The Titans went 1–7 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–5.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Jets	L 10–23	27%	−27
Week 2	vs Eagles	L 20–24	38%	−38
Week 3	@ Giants	L 7–12	19%	−19
Week 4	@ Ravens	L 18–24	5%	−5
Week 5	vs Texans	L 3–26	16%	−16
Week 6	@ Colts	W 26–20	80%	+20
Week 7	vs Browns	L 24–27	16%	−16
Week 8	@ Bengals	L 36–43	6%	−6

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −27 vs NYJ

Wk 2 −38 vs PHI

Wk 3 −19 @ NYG

Wk 4 −5 @ BAL

Wk 5 −16 vs HOU

Wk 6 +20 @ IND

Wk 7 −16 vs CLE

Wk 8 −6 @ CIN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Titans win chance
Week 10 · Nov 15	vs Jaguars	Jaguars by 11.1	20%
Week 11 · Nov 22	at Cowboys	Cowboys by 10.5	21%
Week 12 · Nov 29	at Jaguars	Jaguars by 15.8	11%
Week 13 · Dec 6	vs Commanders	Commanders by 2.2	43%
Week 14 · Dec 13	at Lions	Lions by 13.3	16%
Week 15 · Dec 20	vs Colts	Colts by 0.7	48%
Week 16 · Dec 27	at Raiders	Raiders by 7.4	29%
Week 17 · Jan 3	vs Steelers	Steelers by 6.8	30%
Week 18 · Jan 10	at Texans	Texans by 10.2	22%

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.65	+2.5
Injuries	+0.07	+2.6
Judgment calls	+0.05	+6.0
Drops	−0.03	+1.6
Fumble bounces	−0.10	−4.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.16	−5.5