luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Titans?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.45 points a game to the Titans since 2019, 26th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +2.76 points a game over 5 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Titans minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+1.94 7th55 –
202517−0.89 26th7356 –
202417−1.38 28th7070 –
202317−0.99 27th6662 –
202217−0.77 24th6864 –
202117−0.17 17th7273 +1.49 (1)
202016+0.20 13th5453 +6.25 (1)
201916+0.65 14th6682 +2.02 (3)

Biggest calls for the Titans

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 20 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 24 pts of win probability
  2. Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yards · 2022 Week 16 · 24 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 17 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 23 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Texans (John Metchie), 10 yards · 2023 Week 15 · 21 pts of win probability
  5. Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 21 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Offensive Holding on the Titans (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 30 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Tre Avery), 22 yards · 2023 Week 16 · 21 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 14 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 6 · 19 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 33 yards · 2024 Week 6 · 19 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Holding on the Titans (Caleb Farley), 4 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 5 · 19 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Titans?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.45 points a game to the Titans since 2019, 26th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +2.76 points a game over 5 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Tennessee Titans, every season