2024 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2024: game by game
The Titans went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | L 17–24 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 2 | vs Jets | L 17–24 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 3 | vs Packers | L 14–30 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 4 | @ Dolphins | W 31–12 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 6 | vs Colts | L 17–20 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 7 | @ Bills | L 10–34 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 8 | @ Lions | L 14–52 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 9 | vs Patriots | W 20–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 10 | @ Chargers | L 17–27 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 11 | vs Vikings | L 13–23 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 12 | @ Texans | W 32–27 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 13 | @ Commanders | L 19–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | vs Jaguars | L 6–10 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 15 | vs Bengals | L 27–37 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 16 | @ Colts | L 30–38 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 17 | @ Jaguars | L 13–20 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 18 | vs Texans | L 14–23 | 14% | −14 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.55 | +18.7 |
| Kicks | +0.49 | +10.9 |
| Drops | +0.34 | +12.4 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.20 | +1.2 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.31 | −3.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.38 | −12.3 |