2024 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2024: game by game

The Titans went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Bears	L 17–24	78%	−78
Week 2	vs Jets	L 17–24	60%	−60
Week 3	vs Packers	L 14–30	14%	−14
Week 4	@ Dolphins	W 31–12	48%	+52
Week 6	vs Colts	L 17–20	5%	−5
Week 7	@ Bills	L 10–34	1%	−1
Week 8	@ Lions	L 14–52	36%	−36
Week 9	vs Patriots	W 20–17	95%	+5
Week 10	@ Chargers	L 17–27	16%	−16
Week 11	vs Vikings	L 13–23	16%	−16
Week 12	@ Texans	W 32–27	50%	+50
Week 13	@ Commanders	L 19–42	0%	0
Week 14	vs Jaguars	L 6–10	28%	−28
Week 15	vs Bengals	L 27–37	20%	−20
Week 16	@ Colts	L 30–38	12%	−12
Week 17	@ Jaguars	L 13–20	39%	−39
Week 18	vs Texans	L 14–23	24%	−24

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −78 @ CHI

Wk 2 −60 vs NYJ

Wk 3 −14 vs GB

Wk 4 +52 @ MIA

Wk 6 −5 vs IND

Wk 7 −1 @ BUF

Wk 8 −36 @ DET

Wk 9 +5 vs NE

Wk 10 −16 @ LAC

Wk 11 −16 vs MIN

Wk 12 +50 @ HOU

Wk 13 0 @ WAS

Wk 14 −28 vs JAX

Wk 15 −20 vs CIN

Wk 16 −12 @ IND

Wk 17 −39 @ JAX

Wk 18 −24 vs HOU

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Titans’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+24.9	+1.47
Drops	+11.6	+0.68
Kicks	+10.8	+0.63
Fumble bounces	+1.6	+0.09
Rest	+1.2	+0.07
3rd & 4th downs	−3.6	−0.21
Judgment calls	−23.4	−1.38