luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Titans at Colts, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 38–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:01 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tennessee Titans 30
Indianapolis Colts 38

December 22, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −4

Luck index +9 Colts about even · −9 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 29 IND 23
  2. 2 TEN 20 IND 23
  3. 3 TEN 28 IND 34
  4. 4 TEN 18 IND 27
  5. 5 TEN 34 IND 45
  6. 6 TEN 13 IND 27
  7. 7 TEN 10 IND 28
  8. 8 TEN 16 IND 38
  9. 9 TEN 20 IND 47
  10. 10 TEN 20 IND 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 9% of them, Colts 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.7%
Titans by 9–161.8%
Titans by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.8%
Colts by 1–812.0%
Colts by 9–1621.6%
Colts by 17+57.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 8, without the luck Colts by 7.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • M. Gay, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 55 yds missed · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 4 for 35 yards, Colts 6 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:49 Encroachment on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 6:50 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 11:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% IND +4.2 pts
Q2 4:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +3% IND +1.5 pts
Q3 9:41 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 4:32 Face Mask on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 15 yards 0% TEN +1.5 pts
Q3 3:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Colts (Raekwon Davis), 1 yard 0% TEN +0.1 pts
Q4 7:30 False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (David Long), 15 yards 0% IND +2.7 pts
Q4 0:10 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.1 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:10 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% TEN IND: Punt
2 Q1 7:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:07 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +4% IND IND: Turnover
4 Q2 14:20 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% IND TEN: Missed field goal
5 Q2 14:16 B. Narveson missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +7% IND TEN: Punt
6 Q2 11:05 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q2 11:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:08 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% IND IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Alec Pierce (IND WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Dalton Tucker (IND G), out · 0.3 pts
  • E.J. Speed (IND LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jerome Baker (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Folk (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 8% · Colts 92%

Final margin
Colts by 8
Luck in points
0.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 9% · Colts 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Titans · Colts

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