luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Titans at Colts, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 38–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:01 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tennessee Titans 30
Indianapolis Colts 38

December 22, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −4

Luck index +12 Colts about even · −12 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 23 IND 15
  2. 2 TEN 38 IND 40
  3. 3 TEN 22 IND 27
  4. 4 TEN 13 IND 20
  5. 5 TEN 30 IND 41
  6. 6 TEN 23 IND 37
  7. 7 TEN 19 IND 36
  8. 8 TEN 30 IND 51
  9. 9 TEN 10 IND 36
  10. 10 TEN 23 IND 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 12% of them, Colts 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.1%
Titans by 9–163.2%
Titans by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation2.0%
Colts by 1–817.0%
Colts by 9–1620.8%
Colts by 17+49.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 7.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • M. Gay, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 55 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:44 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:07 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% IND IND: Turnover
4 Q2 14:16 B. Narveson missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +7% IND TEN: Punt
5 Q2 11:05 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:08 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q2 1:32 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% IND TEN: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Alec Pierce (IND WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Dalton Tucker (IND G), out · 0.3 pts
  • E.J. Speed (IND LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jerome Baker (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Folk (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 18% · Colts 82%

Final margin
Colts by 8
Luck in points
0.5 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 12% · Colts 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Titans · Colts

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