2024 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2024: game by game
The Colts went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–5.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | L 27–29 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 2 | @ Packers | L 10–16 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 3 | vs Bears | W 21–16 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | W 27–24 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 5 | @ Jaguars | L 34–37 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 6 | @ Titans | W 20–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 7 | vs Dolphins | W 16–10 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | L 20–23 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 9 | @ Vikings | L 13–21 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 10 | vs Bills | L 20–30 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 11 | @ Jets | W 28–27 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 12 | vs Lions | L 6–24 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 13 | @ Patriots | W 25–24 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 15 | @ Broncos | L 13–31 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 16 | vs Titans | W 38–30 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | L 33–45 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 18 | vs Jaguars | W 26–23 | 88% | +12 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Colts’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +9.8 | +0.58 |
| Injuries | +7.1 | +0.42 |
| Fumble bounces | −1.6 | −0.09 |
| Kicks | −2.4 | −0.14 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −3.2 | −0.19 |
| Rest | −3.3 | −0.20 |
| Drops | −24.3 | −1.43 |