2024 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2024: game by game
The Colts went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–5.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | L 27–29 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 2 | @ Packers | L 10–16 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 3 | vs Bears | W 21–16 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | W 27–24 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 5 | @ Jaguars | L 34–37 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 6 | @ Titans | W 20–17 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 7 | vs Dolphins | W 16–10 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | L 20–23 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 9 | @ Vikings | L 13–21 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 10 | vs Bills | L 20–30 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 11 | @ Jets | W 28–27 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 12 | vs Lions | L 6–24 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 13 | @ Patriots | W 25–24 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 15 | @ Broncos | L 13–31 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 16 | vs Titans | W 38–30 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | L 33–45 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 18 | vs Jaguars | W 26–23 | 87% | +13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.18 | +5.9 |
| Kicks | +0.14 | −3.0 |
| Injuries | +0.14 | +5.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.06 | −3.4 |
| Rest | −0.09 | −3.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.40 | −2.0 |
| Drops | −0.81 | −26.5 |