luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Colts at Texans, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 23–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Texans were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): A. Pierce dropped a catchable pass, worth 27 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Houston Texans 23

October 27, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5

Luck index +12 Texans about even · −12 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 IND 29 HOU 20
  2. 2 IND 26 HOU 29
  3. 3 IND 13 HOU 20
  4. 4 IND 21 HOU 30
  5. 5 IND 23 HOU 34
  6. 6 IND 26 HOU 40
  7. 7 IND 17 HOU 34
  8. 8 IND 12 HOU 33
  9. 9 IND 8 HOU 34
  10. 10 IND 9 HOU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 12% of them, Texans 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+1.0%
Colts by 9–163.2%
Colts by 1–87.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Texans by 1–816.0%
Texans by 9–1621.4%
Texans by 17+49.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:13 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% IND HOU: Punt
2 Q2 0:34 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% HOU IND: End of half
3 Q3 3:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 21 flags in 4207 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +13% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q4 9:27 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:32 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% IND IND: Punt
6 Q4 0:22 A. Pierce dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 112 catchable balls before this +27% HOU IND: Turnover
7 Q4 0:14 The Colts converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% IND IND: Turnover
8 Q4 0:01 The Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 50% · Texans 50%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 12% · Texans 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Colts · Texans

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