luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Colts at Texans, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): A. Pierce dropped a catchable pass, worth 23 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Houston Texans 23

October 27, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5

Luck index +11 Texans about even · −11 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 IND 33 HOU 24
  2. 2 IND 14 HOU 17
  3. 3 IND 12 HOU 18
  4. 4 IND 14 HOU 23
  5. 5 IND 18 HOU 30
  6. 6 IND 20 HOU 35
  7. 7 IND 10 HOU 28
  8. 8 IND 10 HOU 32
  9. 9 IND 10 HOU 36
  10. 10 IND 12 HOU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 11% of them, Texans 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.8%
Colts by 9–162.9%
Colts by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation0.9%
Texans by 1–816.0%
Texans by 9–1620.6%
Texans by 17+51.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Colts: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Texans by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 9 for 57 yards, Texans 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:14 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 10:04 Illegal Formation on the Colts (Rodney Thomas II), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 1:07 False Start on the Texans (Troy Hairston), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.2 pts
Q3 13:11 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 5:56 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q3 4:00 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 3:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% HOU +2.2 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q4 8:32 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% IND +2.2 pts
Q4 4:44 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Nick Cross), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 3:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 3 yards +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 2:28 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +7% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 1:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Kelvin Joseph), 9 yards +8% HOU +0.6 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:39 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +8% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q3 3:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 21 flags in 4207 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +13% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q4 9:27 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:32 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% IND IND: Punt
5 Q4 3:07 The Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% IND HOU: Punt
6 Q4 0:22 A. Pierce dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 112 catchable balls before this +23% HOU IND: Turnover
7 Q4 0:14 The Colts converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% IND IND: Turnover
8 Q4 0:01 The Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 27% · Texans 73%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 11% · Texans 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Colts · Texans

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