luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Panthers at Broncos, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Panthers 28–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 83% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 14
Denver Broncos 28

October 27, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −13

Luck index +21 Broncos about even · −21 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 30 DEN 17
  2. 2 CAR 16 DEN 13
  3. 3 CAR 24 DEN 26
  4. 4 CAR 29 DEN 34
  5. 5 CAR 10 DEN 19
  6. 6 CAR 3 DEN 14
  7. 7 CAR 16 DEN 30
  8. 8 CAR 6 DEN 23
  9. 9 CAR 3 DEN 24
  10. 10 CAR 3 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 21% of them, Broncos 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.9%
Panthers by 9–165.9%
Panthers by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Broncos by 1–825.9%
Broncos by 9–1621.4%
Broncos by 17+30.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 14, without the luck Broncos by 9.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Panthers 8 for 49 yards, Broncos 4 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:54 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 11:48 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 10:06 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 8 yards +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 2:22 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Shy Tuttle), 4 yards +1% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 1:03 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.2 pts
Q3 9:41 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DEN +2.4 pts
Q3 6:02 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 5:32 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Zach Allen), 15 yards +1% CAR +1.8 pts
Q3 5:32 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 10:10 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 0:55 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Malcolm Roach), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.7 pts
Q4 0:18 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Panthers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN 0.0 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Broncos fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR DEN: Punt
2 Q1 10:58 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:15 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:21 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q1 0:34 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% DEN CAR: Punt
6 Q2 12:34 The Broncos converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:52 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +4% DEN CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 4:46 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% DEN CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • P.J. Locke (DEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Palczewski (DEN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andy Dalton (CAR QB), out, replaced by b.young · 2.7 pts
  • Diontae Johnson (CAR WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 1% · Broncos 99%

Final margin
Broncos by 14
Luck in points
4.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 21% · Broncos 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Panthers · Broncos

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