luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Panthers at Broncos, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Panthers 28–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 83% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 14
Denver Broncos 28

October 27, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −13

Luck index +37 Broncos lucky · −37 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 CAR 30 DEN 10
  2. 2 CAR 16 DEN 6
  3. 3 CAR 16 DEN 10
  4. 4 CAR 10 DEN 7
  5. 5 CAR 17 DEN 19
  6. 6 CAR 14 DEN 20
  7. 7 CAR 14 DEN 23
  8. 8 CAR 9 DEN 22
  9. 9 CAR 9 DEN 26
  10. 10 CAR 7 DEN 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 37% of them, Broncos 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+5.3%
Panthers by 9–1610.6%
Panthers by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Broncos by 1–826.1%
Broncos by 9–1619.5%
Broncos by 17+17.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 5.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Broncos fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR DEN: Punt
2 Q1 10:58 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:15 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:21 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q1 2:56 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% CAR DEN: Punt
6 Q1 0:34 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% DEN CAR: Punt
7 Q2 12:34 The Broncos converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:46 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% DEN CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • P.J. Locke (DEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Palczewski (DEN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andy Dalton (CAR QB), out, replaced by b.young · 2.7 pts
  • Diontae Johnson (CAR WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 5% · Broncos 95%

Final margin
Broncos by 14
Luck in points
8.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 37% · Broncos 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Panthers · Broncos

More from Week 8 2024