luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 31–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 8 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.4 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:06 left): Y. Koo missed 46-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

October 27, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +18 Falcons about even · −18 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 8, Buccaneers win 2.

  1. 1 ATL 51 TB 21
  2. 2 ATL 41 TB 19
  3. 3 ATL 31 TB 14
  4. 4 ATL 34 TB 20
  5. 5 ATL 40 TB 30
  6. 6 ATL 38 TB 31
  7. 7 ATL 23 TB 19
  8. 8 ATL 37 TB 34
  9. 9 ATL 24 TB 27
  10. 10 ATL 13 TB 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 82% of them, Buccaneers 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+34.1%
Falcons by 9–1623.4%
Falcons by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation1.2%
Buccaneers by 1–810.5%
Buccaneers by 9–164.7%
Buccaneers by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 20.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 46 yds missed · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:47 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:25 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:05 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2438 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +14% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q4 2:24 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:06 Y. Koo missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 51 of 64 from 45+ before +21% TB –
8 Q4 0:06 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +19% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tykee Smith (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Justin Simmons (ATL FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 100% · Buccaneers 0%

Final margin
Falcons by 5
Luck in points
15.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 82% · Buccaneers 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Falcons · Buccaneers

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