luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 31–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:06 left): Y. Koo missed a 46-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

October 27, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +9 Falcons about even · −9 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Buccaneers win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 48 TB 13
  2. 2 ATL 34 TB 10
  3. 3 ATL 27 TB 7
  4. 4 ATL 32 TB 17
  5. 5 ATL 30 TB 17
  6. 6 ATL 34 TB 24
  7. 7 ATL 28 TB 21
  8. 8 ATL 30 TB 26
  9. 9 ATL 26 TB 24
  10. 10 ATL 27 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 91% of them, Buccaneers 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+49.3%
Falcons by 9–1622.4%
Falcons by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation1.6%
Buccaneers by 1–85.7%
Buccaneers by 9–162.5%
Buccaneers by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Falcons by 5, without the luck Falcons by 16.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 46 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 43 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:08 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 10:35 Taunting on the Falcons (Jessie Bates III), 8 yards +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 7:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% ATL +2.2 pts
Q2 0:09 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers, 5 yards +3% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 14:55 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Darnell Mooney), 10 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 11:38 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +4% ATL +1.1 pts
Q3 3:05 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% TB +4.6 pts
Q4 11:59 False Start on the Buccaneers (Jalen McMillan), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 4:24 Face Mask on the Falcons, 15 yards +5% TB +1.4 pts
Q4 0:09 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ATL +0.3 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ATL TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:47 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:25 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:29 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q3 3:05 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2438 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +14% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q4 2:24 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:06 Y. Koo missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 51 of 64 from 45+ before +21% TB –
8 Q4 0:06 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tykee Smith (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Justin Simmons (ATL FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 100% · Buccaneers 0%

Final margin
Falcons by 5
Luck in points
11.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 91% · Buccaneers 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Falcons · Buccaneers

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