luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Packers at Jaguars, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Jaguars 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Jaguars: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:12 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Green Bay Packers 30
Jacksonville Jaguars 27

October 27, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +10 Packers about even · −10 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 GB 40 JAX 7
  2. 2 GB 34 JAX 10
  3. 3 GB 43 JAX 22
  4. 4 GB 44 JAX 26
  5. 5 GB 28 JAX 14
  6. 6 GB 30 JAX 19
  7. 7 GB 28 JAX 20
  8. 8 GB 36 JAX 31
  9. 9 GB 30 JAX 27
  10. 10 GB 26 JAX 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

30 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.15 better by 0.03
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.08 worse by 0.13
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.08 better by 0.13
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.12 worse by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 90% of them, Jaguars 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+54.1%
Packers by 9–1619.7%
Packers by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation1.0%
Jaguars by 1–86.1%
Jaguars by 9–162.4%
Jaguars by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Packers by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Little, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Little, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 3 for 20 yards, Jaguars 8 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:20 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 6:43 False Start on the Jaguars (Gabriel Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 2:47 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 13:18 False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 3 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 11:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 21 yards +7% GB +2.7 pts
Q2 8:04 Illegal Shift on the Packers (Christian Watson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.2 pts
Q2 2:50 Illegal Motion on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +1.2 pts
Q2 1:12 Defensive Delay of Game on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 5 yards · pre-snap +10% GB +1.9 pts
Q3 9:15 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 0:21 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Daniel Thomas), 10 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedOffensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% JAX GB: Punt
2 Q1 8:34 J. Reed dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 110 catchable balls before this +7% JAX GB: Punt
3 Q2 11:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1055 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:18 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% JAX GB: Field goal
5 Q2 1:12 Defensive Delay of Game on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 2247 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +10% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q4 14:55 The Jaguars fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB JAX: Punt
7 Q4 2:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:00 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +11% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Travis Etienne (JAX RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 76% · Jaguars 24%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
0.1 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 90% · Jaguars 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Packers · Jaguars

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